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In this paper we introduce deep Gaussian process (GP) models. Deep GPs are a deep belief network based on Gaussian process mappings. The data is modeled as the output of a multivariate GP. The inputs to that Gaussian process are then…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-03-26 Andreas C. Damianou , Neil D. Lawrence

We study nonparametric Bayesian inference for the intensity function of a covariate-driven point process. We extend recent results from the literature, showing that a wide class of Gaussian priors, combined with flexible link functions,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-27 Patric Dolmeta , Matteo Giordano

Hierarchical beta process has found interesting applications in recent years. In this paper we present a modified hierarchical beta process prior with applications to hierarchical modeling of multiple data sources. The novel use of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-10-19 Sunil Kumar Gupta , Dinh Q. Phung , Svetha Venkatesh

The identification of the constrained dynamics of mechanical systems is often challenging. Learning methods promise to ease an analytical analysis, but require considerable amounts of data for training. We propose to combine insights from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-16 A. Rene Geist , Sebastian Trimpe

Due to their conjugate posteriors, Gaussian process priors are attractive for estimating the drift of stochastic differential equations with continuous time observations. However, their performance strongly depends on the choice of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-04 Jan van Waaij

In this paper we address the problem of learning the structure of a Bayesian network in domains with continuous variables. This task requires a procedure for comparing different candidate structures. In the Bayesian framework, this is done…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-18 Nir Friedman , Iftach Nachman

A Bayesian design is given by maximising an expected utility over a design space. The utility is chosen to represent the aim of the experiment and its expectation is taken with respect to all unknowns: responses, parameters and/or models.…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-16 Antony M. Overstall , James M. McGree

Machine learning models can be improved by adapting them to respect existing background knowledge. In this paper we consider multitask Gaussian processes, with background knowledge in the form of constraints that require a specific sum of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-02 Philipp Pilar , Carl Jidling , Thomas B. Schön , Niklas Wahlström

We propose practical extensions to Bayesian optimization for solving dynamic problems. We model dynamic objective functions using spatiotemporal Gaussian process priors which capture all the instances of the functions over time. Our…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-12 Favour M. Nyikosa , Michael A. Osborne , Stephen J. Roberts

High dimensional time series are endemic in applications of machine learning such as robotics (sensor data), computational biology (gene expression data), vision (video sequences) and graphics (motion capture data). Practical nonlinear…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2011-07-26 Andreas C. Damianou , Michalis K. Titsias , Neil D. Lawrence

This article revisits the problem of Bayesian shape-restricted inference in the light of a recently developed approximate Gaussian process that admits an equivalent formulation of the shape constraints in terms of the basis coefficients. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-14 Pallavi Ray , Debdeep Pati , Anirban Bhattacharya

Gaussian processes (GPs) provide a framework for Bayesian inference that can offer principled uncertainty estimates for a large range of problems. For example, if we consider regression problems with Gaussian likelihoods, a GP model enjoys…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-21 Felix Leibfried , Vincent Dutordoir , ST John , Nicolas Durrande

We consider the accuracy of an approximate posterior distribution in nonparametric regression problems by combining posterior distributions computed on subsets of the data defined by the locations of the independent variables. We show that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-29 Botond Szabo , Amine Hadji , Aad van der Vaart

Models with dimension more than the available sample size are now commonly used in various applications. A sensible inference is possible using a lower-dimensional structure. In regression problems with a large number of predictors, the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-25 Sayantan Banerjee , Ismaël Castillo , Subhashis Ghosal

One of the pivotal tasks in scientific machine learning is to represent underlying dynamical systems from time series data. Many methods for such dynamics learning explicitly require the derivatives of state data, which are not directly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-17 Dongwei Ye , Mengwu Guo

We consider priors for several nonparametric Bayesian models which use finite random series with a random number of terms. The prior is constructed through distributions on the number of basis functions and the associated coefficients. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-02-10 Weining Shen , Subhashis Ghosal

We introduce a variational Bayesian neural network where the parameters are governed via a probability distribution on random matrices. Specifically, we employ a matrix variate Gaussian \cite{gupta1999matrix} parameter posterior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-06-24 Christos Louizos , Max Welling

Gaussian processes offer a flexible kernel method for regression. While Gaussian processes have many useful theoretical properties and have proven practically useful, they suffer from poor scaling in the number of observations. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-08-26 Nick Terry , Youngjun Choe

Bayesian methods have become a popular way to incorporate prior knowledge and a notion of uncertainty into machine learning models. At the same time, the complexity of modern machine learning makes it challenging to comprehend a model's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-09 Sarem Seitz

A Gaussian process is proposed as a model for the posterior distribution of the local predictive ability of a model or expert, conditional on a vector of covariates, from historical predictions in the form of log predictive scores. Assuming…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-08 Oscar Oelrich , Mattias Villani