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It is a common phenomenon that for high-dimensional and nonparametric statistical models, rate-optimal estimators balance squared bias and variance. Although this balancing is widely observed, little is known whether methods exist that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-03-21 Alexis Derumigny , Johannes Schmidt-Hieber

Minimum Bayes risk (MBR) decoding outputs the hypothesis with the highest expected utility over the model distribution for some utility function. It has been shown to improve accuracy over beam search in conditional language generation…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-11-28 Julius Cheng , Andreas Vlachos

We consider the problem of Bayesian optimization of a one-dimensional Brownian motion in which the $T$ adaptively chosen observations are corrupted by Gaussian noise. We show that as the smallest possible expected cumulative regret and the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-19 Zexin Wang , Vincent Y. F. Tan , Jonathan Scarlett

This paper develops a class of Bayesian non- and semiparametric methods for estimating regression curves and surfaces. The main idea is to model the regression as locally linear, and then place suitable local priors on the local parameters.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-26 Nils Lid Hjort

We consider the minimum error entropy (MEE) criterion and an empirical risk minimization learning algorithm in a regression setting. A learning theory approach is presented for this MEE algorithm and explicit error bounds are provided in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-02-26 Ting Hu , Jun Fan , Qiang Wu , Ding-Xuan Zhou

We consider the estimation of a scalar parameter, when two estimators are available. The first is always consistent. The second is inconsistent in general, but has a smaller asymptotic variance than the first, and may be consistent if an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-06-29 Clément de Chaisemartin , Xavier D'Haultfœuille

The problem of adaptive sampling for estimating probability mass functions (pmf) uniformly well is considered. Performance of the sampling strategy is measured in terms of the worst-case mean squared error. A Bayesian variant of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-09 Dhruva Kartik , Neeraj Sood , Urbashi Mitra , Tara Javidi

This paper explores the Ziv-Zakai bound (ZZB), which is a well-known Bayesian lower bound on the Minimum Mean Squared Error (MMSE). First, it is shown that the ZZB holds without any assumption on the distribution of the estimand, that is,…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2023-05-05 Minoh Jeong , Alex Dytso , Martina Cardone

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is a data-driven strategy for minimizing/maximizing black-box functions based on probabilistic surrogate models. In the presence of safety constraints, the performance of BO crucially relies on tight probabilistic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-15 Oleksii Molodchyk , Johannes Teutsch , Timm Faulwasser

We consider the problem of designing experiments for the estimation of a target in regression analysis if there is uncertainty about the parametric form of the regression function. A new optimality criterion is proposed, which minimizes the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-17 Kira Alhorn , Kirsten Schorning , Holger Dette

This paper studies selecting a subset of the system's output to minimize the state estimation mean square error (MSE). This results in the maximization problem of a set function defined on possible sensor selections subject to a cardinality…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-09-29 Akira Kohara , Kunihisa Okano , Kentaro Hirata , Yukinori Nakamura

Estimating boundary curves has many applications such as economics, climate science, and medicine. Bayesian trend filtering has been developed as one of locally adaptive smoothing methods to estimate the non-stationary trend of data. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-13 Takahiro Onizuka , Fumiya Iwashige , Shintaro Hashimoto

The design of informatively rich input signals is essential for accurate system identification, yet classical Fisher-information-based methods are inherently local and often inadequate in the presence of significant model uncertainty and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-15 Piotr Bania , Anna Wójcik

The paper derives the theoretical Cramer-Rao lower bound for parameter estimation of a source (of emitting energy, gas, aerosol), monitored by a network of sensors providing binary measurements. The theoretical bound is studied in the…

Applications · Statistics 2014-05-30 Branko Ristic , Ajith Gunatilaka , Ralph Gailis

Small area estimators that ignore the sampling design lack design consistency when the sampling mechanism is complex and may be severely biased under informative designs. Existing procedures that account for the survey weights under…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-12 William Acero , Domingo Morales , Isabel Molina

Recently, machine learning-based channel estimation has attracted much attention. The performance of machine learning-based estimation has been validated by simulation experiments. However, little attention has been paid to the theoretical…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-07-15 Kai Mei , Jun Liu , Xiaochen Zhang , Nandana Rajatheva , Jibo Wei

This paper introduces a novel theoretically sound approach for the celebrated CMA-ES algorithm. Assuming the parameters of the multi variate normal distribution for the minimum follow a conjugate prior distribution, we derive their optimal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-03 Eric Benhamou , David Saltiel , Sebastien Verel , Fabien Teytaud

We consider Bayesian inference of signals with vector-valued entries. Extending concentration techniques from the mathematical physics of spin glasses, we show that the matrix-valued minimum mean-square error concentrates when the size of…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2019-07-17 Jean Barbier

Due to the very narrow beam used in millimeter wave communication (mmWave), beam alignment (BA) is a critical issue. In this work, we investigate the issue of mmWave BA and present a novel beam alignment scheme on the basis of a machine…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-07-29 Songjie Yang , Baojuan Liu , Zhiqin Hong , Zhongpei Zhang

In this paper several related estimation problems are addressed from a Bayesian point of view and optimal estimators are obtained for each of them when some natural loss functions are considered. Namely, we are interested in estimating a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-10-27 A. G. Nogales