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We investigate the convergence rates of variational posterior distributions for statistical inverse problems involving nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs). Departing from exact Bayesian inference, variational inference…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-10 Shaokang Zu , Junxiong Jia , Deyu Meng

In this thesis, we study the diffusive and ballistic behaviors of random walk in random environment (RWRE) in an integer lattice with dimension at least 2. Our contributions are in three directions: a conditional law of large numbers and…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-10-08 Xiaoqin Guo

We study the inverse problem of recovering the order and the diffusion coefficient of an elliptic fractional partial differential equation from a finite number of noisy observations of the solution. We work in a Bayesian framework and show…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2017-06-28 Nicolas Garcia Trillos , Daniel Sanz-Alonso

We study the stationary states of variants of the noisy voter model, subject to fluctuating parameters or external environments. Specifically, we consider scenarios in which the herding-to-noise ratio switches randomly and on different time…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-06-01 Annalisa Caligiuri , Tobias Galla

A recurrence equation is a discrete integrable equation whose solutions are all periodic and the period is fixed. We show that infinitely many recurrence equations can be derived from the information about invariant varieties of periodic…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2009-11-11 Satoru Saito , Noriko Saitoh

We explore the voter model dynamics on a directed random graph model ensemble (digraphs), given by the Directed Configuration Model. The voter model captures the evolution of opinions over time on a graph where each vertex represents an…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-07-10 Federico Capannoli

In recent years, the dynamic factor model has emerged as a dominant tool in economics and finance, particularly for investment strategies. This model offers improved handling of complex, nonlinear, and noisy market conditions compared to…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-03-06 Yilun Wang , Shengjie Guo

We present a Bayesian approach to model cohort-level retention rates and revenue over time. We use Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) to model the retention component which we couple with a linear model for the revenue component.…

Applications · Statistics 2025-04-24 Juan Camilo Orduz

We consider a situation where the distribution of a random variable is being estimated by the empirical distribution of noisy measurements of that variable. This is common practice in, for example, teacher value-added models and other…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-12-08 Koen Jochmans , Martin Weidner

We consider a multivariate distributional recursion of sum-type as arising in the probabilistic analysis of algorithms and random trees. We prove an upper tail bound for the solution using Chernoff's bounding technique by estimating the…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-06-21 Goetz Olaf Munsonius

A uniform recursive tree on $n$ vertices is a random tree where each possible $(n-1)!$ labeled recursive rooted tree is selected with equal probability. In this paper we introduce and study weighted trees, a non-uniform recursive tree model…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-12-12 Ella Hiesmayr , Ümit Işlak

We study the mean field limit of a rank-based model with common noise, which arises as an extension to models for the market capitalization of firms in stochastic portfolio theory. We show that, under certain conditions on the drift and…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-06-12 Mykhaylo Shkolnikov , Lane Chun Yeung

We consider a one-dimensional recurrent random walk in random environment (RWRE). We show that the - suitably centered - empirical distributions of the RWRE converge weakly to a certain limit law which describes the stationary distribution…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-02-26 Nina Gantert , Yuval Peres , Zhan Shi

The existence of random attractors for singular stochastic partial differential equations (SPDE) perturbed by general additive noise is proven. The drift is assumed only to satisfy the standard assumptions of the variational approach to…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-11-02 Benjamin Gess

We prove a strong form of the invariance under re-rooting of the distribution of the continuous random trees called Levy trees. This extends previous results due to several authors.

Probability · Mathematics 2009-02-24 Thomas Duquesne , Jean-Francois Le Gall

We prove the equivariant divergence formula for the axiom A flow attractors, which is a recursive formula for perturbation of transfer operators of physical measures along center-unstable manifolds. Hence the linear response acquires an…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-12-20 Angxiu Ni , Yao Tong

We study here the random diffusion model. This is a continuum model for a conserved scalar density field $\phi$ driven by diffusive dynamics. The interesting feature of the dynamics is that the {\it bare} diffusion coefficient $D$ is…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-11-13 Gene F. Mazenko

We introduce some new indexes to measure the departure of any multivariate continuous distribution on non-negative orthant from a given reference one such the uncorrelated exponential model, similar to the relative Fisher dispersion indexes…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-06-25 Célestin C. Kokonendji , Aboubacar Y. Touré , Amadou Sawadogo

We study the influence of the seed in random trees grown according to the uniform attachment model, also known as uniform random recursive trees. We show that different seeds lead to different distributions of limiting trees from a total…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-10-22 Sébastien Bubeck , Ronen Eldan , Elchanan Mossel , Miklós Z. Rácz

The problem of subgroups is ubiquitous in scientific research (ex. disease heterogeneity, spatial distributions in ecology...), and piecewise regression is one way to deal with this phenomenon. Morse-Smale regression offers a way to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-08-22 Colleen M. Farrelly