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We study extremal statistics and return intervals in stationary long-range correlated sequences for which the underlying probability density function is bounded and uniform. The extremal statistics we consider e.g., maximum relative to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-13 N. R. Moloney , J. Davidsen

We develop a new tool, the time inhomogeneous Poisson equation in the whole space and with a terminal condition at infinity, to study the asymptotic behavior of the non-autonomous multi-scale stochastic system with irregular coefficients,…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-12-13 Ling Wang , Pengcheng Xia , Longjie Xie , Li Yang

In this paper we perform an analytical and numerical study of Extreme Value distributions in discrete dynamical systems. In this setting, recent works have shown how to get a statistics of extremes in agreement with the classical Extreme…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2011-12-01 Davide Faranda , Valerio Lucarini , Giorgio Turchetti , Sandro Vaienti

We study analytically and numerically the extreme value distribution of observables defined along the temporal evolution of a dynamical system. The convergence to the Gumbel law of observable recurrences gives information on the fractal…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2020-12-02 Théophile Caby , Davide Faranda , Sandro Vaienti , Pascal Yiou

We establish a theory for multivariate extreme value analysis of dynamical systems. Namely, we provide conditions adapted to the dynamical setting which enable the study of dependence between extreme values of the components of…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2026-01-21 Romain Aimino , Ana Cristina Moreira Freitas , Jorge Milhazes Freitas , Mike Todd

We consider the extreme value statistics of centrally-biased random walks with asymptotically-zero drift in the ergodic regime. We fully characterize the asymptotic distribution of the maximum for this class of Markov chains lacking…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-11-28 Roberto Artuso , Manuele Onofri , Gaia Pozzoli , Mattia Radice

Predicting extreme events in nonlinear dynamical systems is challenging due to a limited understanding of their statistical properties. This study numerically and theoretically investigates the statistical properties of infinite-modal maps…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2026-04-07 Masaki Nakagawa

In this note, we obtain verifiable sufficient conditions for the extreme value distribution for a certain class of skew product extensions of non-uniformly hyperbolic base maps. We show that these conditions, formulated in terms of the…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2008-10-27 Chinmaya Gupta

Heterogeneous diffusion with spatially changing diffusion coefficient arises in many experimental systems like protein dynamics in the cell cytoplasm, mobility of cajal bodies and confined hard-sphere fluids. Here, we showcase a simple…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-02-14 Prashant Singh

Extreme value theory provides rigorous theory and statistical tools for extrapolation in machine learning, particularly in settings where traditional methods struggle due to data scarcity in the tails. A broad range of tasks benefit from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-05 Sebastian Engelke , Nicola Gnecco , Anne Sabourin

We present a novel statistical treatment, the "metastatistics of extreme events", for calculating the frequency of extreme events. This approach, which is of general validity, is the proper statistical framework to address the problem of…

Applications · Statistics 2012-11-14 Massimiliano Ignaccolo , Marco Marani

This paper is devoted to the prediction problem in extreme value theory. Our main result is an explicit expression of the regular conditional distribution of a max-stable (or max-infinitely divisible) process $\{\eta(t)\}_{t\in T}$ given…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-05-15 Clément Dombry , Frédéric Eyi-Minko

The statistics of the slowest first-passage time among a large population of $N$ searchers is crucial for determining the completion time of many stochastic processes. Classical extreme-value theory predicts that for diffusing particles in…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-12-24 Talia Baravi , Eli Barkai

Extreme value statistics provides accurate estimates for the small occurrence probabilities of rare events. While theory and statistical tools for univariate extremes are well-developed, methods for high-dimensional and complex data sets…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-06 Sebastian Engelke , Jevgenijs Ivanovs

The extreme event statistics plays a very important role in the theory and practice of time series analysis. The reassembly of classical theoretical results is often undermined by non-stationarity and dependence between increments.…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-05-28 Mauro Politi , Nicolas Millot , Anirban Chakraborti

We consider a particle which moves on the x axis and is subject to a constant force, such as gravity, plus a random force in the form of Gaussian white noise. We analyze the statistics of first arrival at point $x_1$ of a particle which…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2011-07-19 Theodore W. Burkhardt

Extreme events can come either from point processes, when the size or energy of the events is above a certain threshold, or from time series, when the intensity of a signal surpasses a threshold value. We are particularly concerned by the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-07-26 Alvaro Corral

The statistical theory of extremes is extended to observations that are non-stationary and not independent. The non-stationarity over time and space is controlled via the scedasis (tail scale) in the marginal distributions. Spatial…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-03-10 John H. J. Einmahl , Ana Ferreira , Laurens de Haan , Claudia Neves , Chen Zhou

Extreme value statistics (EVS) concerns the study of the statistics of the maximum or the minimum of a set of random variables. This is an important problem for any time-series and has applications in climate, finance, sports, all the way…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-10-12 Satya N. Majumdar , Arnab Pal , Gregory Schehr

We investigate the extreme first-passage statistics of $N$ non-interacting random walkers on discrete, hierarchical networks. {By distinguishing between transport limited by escape from localized initial states (injection-limited) and…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2026-05-15 Bhargav R. Karamched