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Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are widely used statistical models for modeling sequential data. The parameter estimation for HMMs from time series data is an important learning problem. The predominant methods for parameter estimation are…
This paper introduces a new parsimonious structure for mixture of autoregressive models. the weighting coefficients are determined through latent random variables, following a hidden Markov model. We propose a dynamic programming algorithm…
We explore the use of traditional and contemporary hidden Markov models (HMMs) for sequential physiological data analysis and sepsis prediction in preterm infants. We investigate the use of classical Gaussian mixture model based HMM, and a…
We propose a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model for prediction- and information extraction tasks with an efficient inference scheme. It models categorical-valued time series that exhibit dynamics from multiple underlying patterns (e.g.…
We present and analyse three online algorithms for learning in discrete Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) and compare them with the Baldi-Chauvin Algorithm. Using the Kullback-Leibler divergence as a measure of generalisation error we draw…
We consider a method for approximate inference in hidden Markov models (HMMs). The method circumvents the need to evaluate conditional densities of observations given the hidden states. It may be considered an instance of Approximate…
We propose the segmented iHMM (siHMM), a hierarchical infinite hidden Markov model (iHMM) that supports a simple, efficient inference scheme. The siHMM is well suited to segmentation problems, where the goal is to identify points at which a…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) have been successfully applied to automatic speech recognition for more than 35 years in spite of the fact that a key HMM assumption -- the statistical independence of frames -- is obviously violated by speech…
Observable operator models (OOMs) offer a powerful framework for modelling stochastic processes, surpassing the traditional hidden Markov models (HMMs) in generality and efficiency. However, using OOMs to model infinite-dimensional…
This paper addresses the issue of model selection for hidden Markov models (HMMs). We generalize factorized asymptotic Bayesian inference (FAB), which has been recently developed for model selection on independent hidden variables (i.e.,…
The Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm is a versatile tool for model parameter estimation in latent data models. When processing large data sets or data stream however, EM becomes intractable since it requires the whole data set to be…
The partially observable hidden Markov model is an extension of the hidden Markov Model in which the hidden state is conditioned on an independent Markov chain. This structure is motivated by the presence of discrete metadata, such as an…
The stock market presents a challenging environment for accurately predicting future stock prices due to its intricate and ever-changing nature. However, the utilization of advanced methodologies can significantly enhance the precision of…
Hidden Quantum Markov Models (HQMMs) can be thought of as quantum probabilistic graphical models that can model sequential data. We extend previous work on HQMMs with three contributions: (1) we show how classical hidden Markov models…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) offer a robust and efficient framework for analyzing time series data, modelling both the underlying latent state progression over time and the observation process, conditional on the latent state. However, a…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are flexible tools for clustering dependent data coming from unknown populations, allowing nonparametric modelling of the population densities. Identifiability fails when the data is in fact independent and…
The hidden Markov model (HMM) is a widely-used generative model that copes with sequential data, assuming that each observation is conditioned on the state of a hidden Markov chain. In this paper, we derive a novel algorithm to cluster HMMs…
Reversibility is a key concept in Markov models and Master-equation models of molecular kinetics. The analysis and interpretation of the transition matrix encoding the kinetic properties of the model relies heavily on the reversibility…
We study the frontier between learnable and unlearnable hidden Markov models (HMMs). HMMs are flexible tools for clustering dependent data coming from unknown populations. The model parameters are known to be fully identifiable (up to…
A hidden Markov model with trends is a hidden Markov model whose emission distributions are translated by a trend that depends on the current hidden state and on the current time. Contrary to standard hidden Markov models, such processes…