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Temporal data such as time series can be viewed as discretized measurements of the underlying function. To build a generative model for such data we have to model the stochastic process that governs it. We propose a solution by defining the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-22 Marin Biloš , Kashif Rasul , Anderson Schneider , Yuriy Nevmyvaka , Stephan Günnemann

Nonparametric estimators for the mean and the covariance functions of functional data are proposed. The setup covers a wide range of practical situations. The random trajectories are, not necessarily differentiable, have unknown regularity,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-02-13 Steven Golovkine , Nicolas Klutchnikoff , Valentin Patilea

This paper considers nonparametric estimation and inference in first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) models with deterministically time-varying parameters. A key feature of the proposed approach is to allow for time-varying stationarity in…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-11-04 Donald W. K. Andrews , Ming Li

We consider a longitudinal data structure consisting of baseline covariates, time-varying treatment variables, intermediate time-dependent covariates, and a possibly time dependent outcome. Previous studies have shown that estimating the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-09 Linh Tran , Maya Petersen , Joshua Schwab , Mark J van der Laan

This paper investigates the active sampling for estimation of approximately bandlimited graph signals. With the assistance of a graph filter, an approximately bandlimited graph signal can be formulated by a Gaussian random field over the…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-02-19 Sijie Lin , Xuan Xie , Hui Feng , Bo Hu

Autocovariance of the error term in a time series model plays a key role in the estimation and inference for the model that it belongs to. Typically, some arbitrary parametric structure is assumed upon the error to simplify the estimation,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-17 Yoon Bae Jun , Chae Young Lim , Kun Ho Kim

We consider a stochastic process model with time trend and measurement error. We establish consistency and derive the limiting distributions of the maximum likelihood (ML) estimators of the covariance function parameters under a general…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-09-29 Chih-Hao Chang , Hsin-Cheng Huang , Ching-Kang Ing

Motivated by recent work involving the analysis of leveraging spatial correlations in sparsified mean estimation, we present a novel procedure for constructing covariance estimator. The proposed Random-knots (Random-knots-Spatial) and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-25 Sijie Zheng , Fandong Meng , Jie Zhou

Non-probability sampling, for example in the form of online panels, has become a fast and cheap method to collect data. While reliable inference tools are available for classical probability samples, non-probability samples can yield…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-05 Gerhard Tutz

Prediction intervals are a machine- and human-interpretable way to represent predictive uncertainty in a regression analysis. In this paper, we present a method for generating prediction intervals along with point estimates from an ensemble…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-21 Tárik S. Salem , Helge Langseth , Heri Ramampiaro

We propose a novel estimator of the autocorrelation function in presence of missing observations. We establish the consistency, the asymptotic normality, and we derive deviation bounds for various classes of weakly dependent stationary time…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-04-22 Natalia Bahamonde , Paul Doukhan , Eric Moulines

An empirical algorithm is used here to study the stochastic and multifractal nature of nonlinear time series. A parameter can be defined to quantitatively measure the deviation of the time series from a Wiener process so that the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-01-08 Chih-Hao Lin , Chia-Seng Chang , Sai-Ping Li

When studying the causal effect of $x$ on $y$, researchers may conduct regression and report a confidence interval for the slope coefficient $\beta_{x}$. This common confidence interval provides an assessment of uncertainty from sampling…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-26 Brian Knaeble , Braxton Osting , Mark Abramson

We consider two nonparametric procedures for estimating a concave distribution function based on data corrupted with additive noise generated by a bounded decreasing density on $(0,\infty)$. For the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-04-02 Geurt Jongbloed , Frank H. van der Meulen

In stochastic simulation, input uncertainty refers to the output variability arising from the statistical noise in specifying the input models. This uncertainty can be measured by a variance contribution in the output, which, in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-20 Henry Lam , Huajie Qian

The problem of estimating a linear functional based on observational data is canonical in both the causal inference and bandit literatures. We analyze a broad class of two-stage procedures that first estimate the treatment effect function,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-09-28 Wenlong Mou , Martin J. Wainwright , Peter L. Bartlett

A crucial assumption to reduce computational complexity in spatial-temporal data analysis is separability, which factors the covariance structure into a purely spatial and a purely temporal component. In this paper, we develop statistical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-30 Lujia Bai , Holger Dette , Zihao Yuan

We propose solution of the problem of the mean square optimal estimation of linear functionals which depend on the unobserved values of a continuous time stochastic process with periodically correlated increments based on observations of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-01-18 Maksym Luz , Mikhail Moklyachuk

In this paper, we suggest an estimator using two auxiliary variables in stratified random sampling. The propose estimator has an improvement over mean per unit estimator as well as some other considered estimators. Expressions for bias and…

Applications · Statistics 2014-04-01 Rajesh Singh , Sachin Malik

In this work, we attempt to refine the classic asymptotic formulae to describe the probability distribution of likelihood-ratio statistical tests. The idea is to split the probability distribution function into two parts. One part is…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2025-07-29 Li-Gang Xia , Yan Zhang