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Markov switching models are often used to analyze financial returns because of their ability to capture frequently observed stylized facts. In this paper we consider a multivariate Student-t version of the model as a viable alternative to…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-03-04 Mauro Bernardi , Antonello Maruotti , Lea Petrella

We develop correlated random measures, random measures where the atom weights can exhibit a flexible pattern of dependence, and use them to develop powerful hierarchical Bayesian nonparametric models. Hierarchical Bayesian nonparametric…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-10 Rajesh Ranganath , David Blei

Standard statistical analysis is unable to provide reliable confidence intervals on expectation values of probability distributions that do not satisfy the conditions of the central limit theorem. We present a regression-based estimator of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2019-06-24 Pablo Lopez Rios , Gareth J. Conduit

We consider settings in which the data of interest correspond to pairs of ordered times, e.g, the birth times of the first and second child, the times at which a new user creates an account and makes the first purchase on a website, and the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-19 Tamara Fernández , Wenkai Xu , Marc Ditzhaus , Arthur Gretton

Covariate adjustment is an important tool in the analysis of randomized clinical trials and observational studies. It can be used to increase efficiency and thus power, and to reduce possible bias. While most statistical tests in randomized…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-08-03 Xiaoru Wu , Zhiliang Ying

While correlation measures are used to discern statistical relationships between observed variables in almost all branches of data-driven scientific inquiry, what we are really interested in is the existence of causal dependence. Designing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-06-26 Ishanu Chattopadhyay

Multivariate extreme value theory is concerned with modeling the joint tail behavior of several random variables. Existing work mostly focuses on asymptotic dependence, where the probability of observing a large value in one of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-11 Michaël Lalancette , Sebastian Engelke , Stanislav Volgushev

Traditional statistical analysis requires that the analysis process and data are independent. By contrast, the new field of adaptive data analysis hopes to understand and provide algorithms and accuracy guarantees for research as it is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-03-22 Sam Elder

This paper presents the application of a new semi-analytical method of linear regression for Poisson count data to COVID-19 events. The regression is based on the Bonamente and Spence (2022) maximum-likelihood solution for the best-fit…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-29 M. Bonamente

Testing for association or dependence between pairs of random variables is a fundamental problem in statistics. In some applications, data are subject to selection bias that causes dependence between observations even when it is absent from…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-13 Yaniv Tenzer , Micha Mandel , Or Zuk

Measuring the (causal) direction and strength of dependence between two variables (events), Xi and Xj , is fundamental for all science. Our survey of decades-long literature on statistical dependence reveals that most assume symmetry in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-01 Hrishikesh Vinod

We present a new family of estimators of the Weibull tail-coefficient. The Weibull tail-coefficient is defined as the regular variation coefficient of the inverse failure rate function. Our estimators are based on a linear combination of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-03-31 Laurent Gardes , Stéphane Girard

Pearson's correlation is an important summary measure of the amount of dependence between two variables. It is natural to want to generalise the concept of correlation as a single number that measures the inter-relatedness of three or more…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-06 Benjamin M. Taylor

We compare measures of concordance that arise as Pearson's linear correlation coefficient between two random variables transformed so that they follow the so-called concordance-inducing distributions. The class of such transformed rank…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-03-07 Takaaki Koike , Marius Hofert

(To appear in The American Statistician.) Distance covariance (Sz\'ekely, Rizzo, and Bakirov, 2007) is a fascinating recent notion, which is popular as a test for dependence of any type between random variables $X$ and $Y$. This approach…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-08 Jakob Raymaekers , Peter J. Rousseeuw

Normal copula with a correlation coefficient between $-1$ and $1$ is tail independent and so it severely underestimates extreme probabilities. By letting the correlation coefficient in a normal copula depend on the sample size, H\"usler and…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-05-04 Xin Liao , Liang Peng , Zuoxiang Peng , Yanting Zheng

It is increasingly common to collect pre-post data with pseudonyms or self-constructed identifiers. On survey responses from sensitive populations, identifiers may be made optional to encourage higher response rates. The ability to match…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-25 Raymond Pomponio , Bailey K. Fosdick , Julia Wrobel , Ryan A. Peterson

There has been an increasing interest in testing the equality of large Pearson's correlation matrices. However, in many applications it is more important to test the equality of large rank-based correlation matrices since they are more…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-04-02 Cheng Zhou , Fang Han , Xinsheng Zhang , Han Liu

Cosine similarity is an established similarity metric for computing associations on vectors, and it is commonly used to identify related samples from biological perturbational data. The distribution of cosine similarity changes with the…

This paper proposes a new statistic to test independence between two high dimensional random vectors ${\mathbf{X}}:p_1\times1$ and ${\mathbf{Y}}:p_2\times1$. The proposed statistic is based on the sum of regularized sample canonical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-19 Yanrong Yang , Guangming Pan