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Standard Bayesian analyses can be difficult to perform when the full likelihood, and consequently the full posterior distribution, is too complex and difficult to specify or if robustness with respect to data or to model misspecifications…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-08 Federica Giummolè , Valentina Mameli , Erlis Ruli , Laura Ventura

The construction of objective priors is, at best, challenging for multidimensional parameter spaces. A common practice is to assume independence and set up the joint prior as the product of marginal distributions obtained via "standard"…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-07 Isadora Antoniano-Villalobos , Cristiano Villa , Stephen G. Walker

Often the goal of model selection is to choose a model for future prediction, and it is natural to measure the accuracy of a future prediction by squared error loss. Under the Bayesian approach, it is commonly perceived that the optimal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Maria Maddalena Barbieri , James O. Berger

The behavior of many Bayesian models used in machine learning critically depends on the choice of prior distributions, controlled by some hyperparameters that are typically selected by Bayesian optimization or cross-validation. This…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-09 Eliezer de Souza da Silva , Tomasz Kuśmierczyk , Marcelo Hartmann , Arto Klami

The implementation of Bayesian predictive procedures under standard normal models is considered. Two distributions are of particular interest, the K-prime and K-square distributions. They also give exact inferences for simple and multiple…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-17 Jacques Poitevineau , Bruno Lecoutre

When do nonparametric Bayesian procedures ``overfit''? To shed light on this question, we consider a binary regression problem in detail and establish frequentist consistency for a certain class of Bayes procedures based on hierarchical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Marc Coram , Steven P. Lalley

Informative Bayesian priors are often difficult to elicit, and when this is the case, modelers usually turn to noninformative or objective priors. However, objective priors such as the Jeffreys and reference priors are not tractable to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-08-08 Eric Nalisnick , Padhraic Smyth

The prior distribution for the unknown model parameters plays a crucial role in the process of statistical inference based on Bayesian methods. However, specifying suitable priors is often difficult even when detailed prior knowledge is…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-18 Marcelo Hartmann , Georgi Agiashvili , Paul Bürkner , Arto Klami

Between Bayesian and frequentist inference, it's commonly believed that the former is for cases where one has a prior and the latter is for cases where one has no prior. But the prior/no-prior classification isn't exhaustive, and most…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-29 Ryan Martin

Although Bayesian inference is an immensely popular paradigm among a large segment of scientists including statisticians, most applications consider objective priors and need critical investigations (Efron, 2013, Science). While it has…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-11 Abhik Ghosh , Tuhin Majumder , Ayanendranath Basu

This paper offers a comprehensive introduction to Bayesian inference, combining historical context, theoretical foundations, and core analytical examples. Beginning with Bayes' theorem and the philosophical distinctions between Bayesian and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-08 Juan Sosa , Carlos A. Martínez , Danna Cruz

This paper presents three objective Bayesian methods for analyzing bilateral data under Dallal's model and the saturated model. Three parameters are of interest, namely, the risk difference, the risk ratio, and the odds ratio. We derive…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-04-27 Cyr Emile M'lan , Ming-Hui Chen

Formulating a statistical inverse problem as one of inference in a Bayesian model has great appeal, notably for what this brings in terms of coherence, the interpretability of regularisation penalties, the integration of all uncertainties,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-12-19 Natalia A. Bochkina , Peter J. Green

We propose a new method for conducting Bayesian prediction that delivers accurate predictions without correctly specifying the unknown true data generating process. A prior is defined over a class of plausible predictive models. After…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-24 Ruben Loaiza-Maya , Gael M. Martin , David T. Frazier

It is a relatively well-known fact that in problems of Bayesian model selection improper priors should, in general, be avoided. In this paper we derive a proper and parsimonious uniform prior for regression coefficients. We then use this…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-08-07 H. R. N. van Erp , R. O. Linger , P. H. A. J. M. van Gelder

Bayesian inversion generates a posterior distribution of model parameters from an observation equation and prior information both weighted by hyperparameters. The prior is also introduced for the hyperparameters in fully Bayesian inversions…

Geophysics · Physics 2022-07-20 Dye SK Sato , Yukitoshi Fukahata , Yohei Nozue

We give an overview of some uses of proper scoring rules in statistical inference, including frequentist estimation theory and Bayesian model selection with improper priors.

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-04-28 A. Philip Dawid , Monica Musio

In this paper the problem of learning appropriate bias for an environment of related tasks is examined from a Bayesian perspective. The environment of related tasks is shown to be naturally modelled by the concept of an {\em objective}…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-15 Jonathan Baxter

As the frontiers of applied statistics progress through increasingly complex experiments we must exploit increasingly sophisticated inferential models to analyze the observations we make. In order to avoid misleading or outright erroneous…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-03-23 Michael Betancourt

Using instruments comprising ordered responses to items are ubiquitous for studying many constructs of interest. However, using such an item response format may lead to items with response categories infrequently endorsed or unendorsed…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-02 R. Noah Padgett , Grant B. Morgan , Tim Lomas