Related papers: Bounds for Bayesian order identification with appl…
In random parameter estimation, Bayesian lower bounds (BLBs) for the mean-square error have been noticed to not be tight in a number of cases, even when the sample size, or the signal-to-noise ratio, grow to infinity. In this paper, we…
We present two sampling algorithms for probabilistic confidence inference in Bayesian networks. These two algorithms (we call them AIS-BN-mu and AIS-BN-sigma algorithms) guarantee that estimates of posterior probabilities are with a given…
Hierarchical learning models, such as mixture models and Bayesian networks, are widely employed for unsupervised learning tasks, such as clustering analysis. They consist of observable and hidden variables, which represent the given data…
Bayesian optimisation (BO) is a well-known efficient algorithm for finding the global optimum of expensive, black-box functions. The current practical BO algorithms have regret bounds ranging from $\mathcal{O}(\frac{logN}{\sqrt{N}})$ to…
In this article, we introduce mixture representations for likelihood ratio ordered distributions. Essentially, the ratio of two probability densities, or mass functions, is monotone if and only if one can be expressed as a mixture of…
Practical model building processes are often time-consuming because many different models must be trained and validated. In this paper, we introduce a novel algorithm that can be used for computing the lower and the upper bounds of model…
Finite mixture models are ubiquitous in modern statistical modeling, and a recurring practical issue is choosing the model order. In \citet[Sankhy\=a Series A, \textbf62, pp. 49--66]{keribin2000consistent}, the Bayesian information…
In experiments to estimate parameters of a parametric model, Bayesian experiment design allows measurement settings to be chosen based on utility, which is the predicted improvement of parameter distributions due to modeled measurement…
We address online combinatorial optimization when the player has a prior over the adversary's sequence of losses. In this framework, Russo and Van Roy proposed an information-theoretic analysis of Thompson Sampling based on the information…
Bayesian optimization (BO) is a widely used iterative algorithm for optimizing black-box functions. Each iteration requires maximizing an acquisition function, such as the upper confidence bound (UCB) or a sample path from the Gaussian…
We consider the problem of aggregating pairwise comparisons to obtain a consensus ranking order over a collection of objects. We use the popular Bradley-Terry-Luce (BTL) model which allows us to probabilistically describe pairwise…
Models often need to be constrained to a certain size for them to be considered interpretable. For example, a decision tree of depth 5 is much easier to understand than one of depth 50. Limiting model size, however, often reduces accuracy.…
Recent advances in statistical learning theory have revealed profound connections between mutual information (MI) bounds, PAC-Bayesian theory, and Bayesian nonparametrics. This work introduces a novel mutual information bound for…
We explore the utility of information contained within a dropout based Bayesian neural network (BNN) for the task of detecting out of distribution (OOD) data. We first show how previous attempts to leverage the randomized embeddings induced…
Many major works in social science employ matching to make causal conclusions, but different matches on the same data may produce different treatment effect estimates, even when they achieve similar balance or minimize the same loss…
Inference in the presence of outliers is an important field of research as outliers are ubiquitous and may arise across a variety of problems and domains. Bayesian optimization is method that heavily relies on probabilistic inference. This…
We give tight concentration bounds for mixtures of martingales that are simultaneously uniform over (a) mixture distributions, in a PAC-Bayes sense; and (b) all finite times. These bounds are proved in terms of the martingale variance,…
The structure of data organization is widely recognized as having a substantial influence on the efficacy of machine learning algorithms, particularly in binary classification tasks. Our research provides a theoretical framework suggesting…
We have previously reported a Bayesian algorithm for determining the coordinates of points in three-dimensional space from uncertain constraints. This method is useful in the determination of biological molecular structure. It is limited,…
We present a new nonparametric mixture-of-experts model for multivariate regression problems, inspired by the probabilistic k-nearest neighbors algorithm. Using a conditionally specified model, predictions for out-of-sample inputs are based…