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We explore the idea that non-equilibrium steady states breaking detailed balance are obtained by deforming trajectories (lines in space-time) that have been sampled in a reference system with stochastic dynamics obeying detailed balance,…
The inspection of residuals is a fundamental step to investigate the quality of adjustment of a parametric model to data. For spatial point processes, the concept of residuals has been recently proposed by Baddeley et al. (2005) as an…
Quantitative properties of stochastic systems are usually specified in logics that allow one to compare the measure of executions satisfying certain temporal properties with thresholds. The model checking problem for stochastic systems with…
This paper addresses the problem of fitting a known distribution to the innovation distribution in a class of stationary and ergodic time series models. The asymptotic null distribution of the usual Kolmogorov--Smirnov test based on the…
We prove the existence of a successful coupling for $n$ particles in the symmetric inclusion process. As a consequence we characterize the ergodic measures with finite moments, and obtain sufficient conditions for a measure to converge in…
We consider the problem of the construction of the Goodness-of-Fit test in the case of continuous time observations of a diffusion process with small noise. The null hypothesis is parametric and we use a minimum distance estimator of the…
Let $\{(X_i,Y_i)\}$ be a stationary ergodic time series with $(X,Y)$ values in the product space $\R^d\bigotimes \R .$ This study offers what is believed to be the first strongly consistent (with respect to pointwise, least-squares, and…
From a dynamical viewpoint, basic phase transitions of statistical mechanics can be regarded as a breaking of ergodicity. While many random models exhibiting such transitions at the thermodynamics limit exist, finite-dimensional examples…
In this paper we study the ergodicity and the related semigroup property for a class of symmetric Markov jump processes associated with time changed symmetric $\alpha$-stable processes. For this purpose, explicit and sharp criteria for…
In a wide range of applications, the stochastic properties of the observed time series change over time. The changes often occur gradually rather than abruptly: the prop- erties are (approximately) constant for some time and then slowly…
This study concerns problems of time-series forecasting under the weakest of assumptions. Related results are surveyed and are points of departure for the developments here, some of which are new and others are new derivations of previous…
We introduce tests for the goodness of fit of point patterns via methods from topological data analysis. More precisely, the persistent Betti numbers give rise to a bivariate functional summary statistic for observed point patterns that is…
Time series prediction covers a vast field of every-day statistical applications in medical, environmental and economic domains. In this paper we develop nonparametric prediction strategies based on the combination of a set of 'experts' and…
We develop new econometric methods for the comparison of nonparametric time trends. In many applications, practitioners are interested in whether the observed time series all have the same time trend. Moreover, they would often like to know…
Prediction with the possibility of abstention (or selective prediction) is an important problem for error-critical machine learning applications. While well-studied in the classification setup, selective approaches to regression are much…
The first motivation of this paper is to study stationarity and ergodic properties for a general class of time series models defined conditional on an exogenous covariates process. The dynamic of these models is given by an autoregressive…
There exist a number of tests for assessing the nonparametric heteroscedastic location-scale assumption. Here we consider a goodness-of-fit test for the more general hypothesis of the validity of this model under a parametric functional…
Spatial point processes are used as models in many different fields ranging from ecology and forestry to cosmology and materials science. In recent years, model validation, and in particular goodness-of-fit testing of a proposed point…
How do decisions change with the economic environment and with time? This paper studies general nonstationary stopping problems and provides the methodological tools to answer these questions. First, we identify conditions that ensure a…
In this paper we investigate the problem of testing the assumption of stationarity in locally stationary processes. The test is based on an estimate of a Kolmogorov-Smirnov type distance between the true time varying spectral density and…