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We develop and apply two calibration procedures for checking the coverage of approximate Bayesian credible sets including intervals estimated using Monte Carlo methods. The user has an ideal prior and likelihood, but generates a credible…

Computation · Statistics 2026-05-19 Jeong Eun Lee , Geoff K. Nicholls , Robin J. Ryder

We investigate the modeling and the numerical solution of machine learning problems with prediction functions which are linear combinations of elements of a possibly infinite-dimensional dictionary. We propose a novel flexible composite…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-12-03 Patrick L. Combettes , Saverio Salzo , Silvia Villa

Model-assisted estimation with complex survey data is an important practical problem in survey sampling. When there are many auxiliary variables, selecting significant variables associated with the study variable would be necessary to…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-01 Shonosuke Sugasawa , Jae Kwang Kim

Bayesian inference requires specification of a single, precise prior distribution, whereas frequentist inference only accommodates a vacuous prior. Since virtually every real-world application falls somewhere in between these two extremes,…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-26 Ryan Martin

We marshall the arguments for preferring Bayesian hypothesis testing and confidence sets to frequentist ones. We define admissible solutions to inference problems, noting that Bayesian solutions are admissible. We give seven weaker…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-22 Roger Sewell

We discuss Bayesian inference for parameters selected using the data. First, we provide a critical analysis of the existing positions in the literature regarding the correct Bayesian approach under selection. Second, we propose two types of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-05-12 Daniel G. Rasines , G. Alastair Young

Count outcomes in longitudinal studies are frequent in clinical and engineering studies. In frequentist and Bayesian statistical analysis, methods such as Mixed linear models allow the variability or correlation within individuals to be…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-15 Alejandra Estefanía Patiño Hoyos , Johnatan Cardona Jiménez

Bayesian statistics has gained popularity in psychological research due to its intuitive uncertainty quantification and convenient information-updating rules. In many applications, however, prior distributions are introduced merely as…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-10 Yang Liu , Jonathan P. Williams , Jan Hannig

We extend known saddlepoint tail probability approximations to multivariate cases, including multivariate conditional cases. Our approximation applies to both continuous and lattice variables, and requires the existence of a cumulant…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-11-29 John Kolassa , Jixin Li

Statistical inference may follow a frequentist approach or it may follow a Bayesian approach or it may use the minimum description length principle (MDL). Our goal is to identify situations in which these different approaches to statistical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-05-08 Peter Harremoës

Estimating the difference between two binomial proportions will be investigated, where Bayesian, frequentist and fiducial (BFF) methods will be considered. Three vague priors will be used, the Jeffreys prior, a divergence prior and the…

Applications · Statistics 2021-11-17 Lizanne Raubenheimer

Scientists continue to develop increasingly complex mechanistic models to reflect their knowledge more realistically. Statistical inference using these models can be challenging since the corresponding likelihood function is often…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-07 Joshua J Bon , David J Warne , David J Nott , Christopher Drovandi

This paper presents an identity between the multivariate and univariate saddlepoint approximations applied to sample path probabilities for a certain class of stochastic processes. This class, which we term the recursively compounded…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-06-21 Jesse Goodman

Noninformative priors constructed for estimation purposes are usually not appropriate for model selection and testing. The methodology of integral priors was developed to get prior distributions for Bayesian model selection when comparing…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-05 Diego Salmerón , Juan Antonio Cano , Christian P. Robert

Nonprobability (convenience) samples are increasingly sought to stabilize estimations for one or more population variables of interest that are performed using a randomized survey (reference) sample by increasing the effective sample size.…

We describe some recent approaches to likelihood based inference in the presence of nuisance parameters. Our approach is based on plotting the likelihood function and the $p$-value function, using recently developed third order…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 N. Reid , D. A. S. Fraser

Inverse problems lend themselves naturally to a Bayesian formulation, in which the quantity of interest is a posterior distribution of state and/or parameters given some uncertain observations. For the common case in which the forward…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-08-20 Kody J. H. Law

The likelihood function is central to both frequentist and Bayesian formulations of parametric statistical inference, and large-sample approximations to the sampling distributions of estimators and test statistics, and to posterior…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-05 Anthony C. Davison , Nancy Reid

Modern applications routinely collect high-dimensional data, leading to statistical models having more parameters than there are samples available. A common solution is to impose sparsity in parameter estimation, often using penalized…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-08 Paolo Onorati , David B. Dunson , Antonio Canale

Inspired by applications in sports where the skill of players or teams competing against each other varies over time, we propose a probabilistic model of pairwise-comparison outcomes that can capture a wide range of time dynamics. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-20 Lucas Maystre , Victor Kristof , Matthias Grossglauser