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The recent empirical work of Amaya et al. (2015) has pointed out that the realized skewness, which is the sample skewness of intraday high-frequency returns of a financial asset, serves as forecasting future returns in the cross-section.…
We prove the local asymptotic mixed normality (LAMN) property for a family of probability measures defined by parametrized diffusion processes with nonsynchronous observations. We assume that observation times of processes are independent…
We establish the asymptotic validity of frequency-domain inference for stationary multivariate Hawkes processes under mild conditions, bridging the gap between theory and application. By developing upper-bounds on the reduced cumulant…
To assess whether a given time series can be modeled by a stochastic process possessing long range correlation one usually applies one of two types of analysis methods: the spectral method and the random walk analysis. The first objective…
We develop asymptotic approximations that can be applied to sequential estimation and inference problems, adaptive randomized controlled trials, and related settings. In batched adaptive settings where the decision at one stage can affect…
In observational studies with time-to-event outcomes, the g-formula can be used to estimate a treatment effect in the presence of confounding factors. However, the asymptotic distribution of the corresponding stochastic process is…
We model non-stationary volume-price distributions with a log-normal distribution and collect the time series of its two parameters. The time series of the two parameters are shown to be stationary and Markov-like and consequently can be…
This paper discusses asymptotic distributions of various estimators of the underlying parameters in some regression models with long memory (LM) Gaussian design and nonparametric heteroscedastic LM moving average errors. In the simple…
We provide the detailed asymptotic behavior for first-order aggregation models of heterogeneous oscillators. Due to the dissimilarity of natural frequencies, one could expect that all relative distances converge to definite positive value…
Asymptotic properties, both consistency and weak convergence, of estimators arising in a general class of dynamic recurrent event models are presented. The class of models take into account the impact of interventions after each event…
Dynamical systems describe the changes in processes that arise naturally from their underlying physical principles, such as the laws of motion or the conservation of mass, energy or momentum. These models facilitate a causal explanation for…
In a wide range of applications, the stochastic properties of the observed time series change over time. The changes often occur gradually rather than abruptly: the properties are (approximately) constant for some time and then slowly start…
We study statistical inference for small-noise-perturbed multiscale dynamical systems under the assumption that we observe a single time series from the slow process only. We construct estimators for both averaging and homogenization…
This paper introduces a family of recursively defined estimators of the parameters of a diffusion process. We use ideas of stochastic algorithms for the construction of the estimators. Asymptotic consistency of these estimators and…
We introduce a new method for online parameter estimation in stochastic interacting particle systems, based on continuous observation of a small number of particles from the system. Our method recursively updates the model parameters using…
Gaussian quasi-likelihood estimation of the parameter $\theta$ in the square-root diffusion process is studied under high frequency sampling. Different from the previous study of Overbeck and Ryd\'{e}n(1998) under low-frequency sampling,…
Layered stable (multivariate) distributions and processes are defined and studied. A layered stable process combines stable trends of two different indices, one of them possibly Gaussian. More precisely, in short time, it is close to a…
We develop a stochastic model for Lagrangian velocity as it is observed in experimental and numerical fully developed turbulent flows. We define it as the unique statistically stationary solution of a causal dynamics, given by a stochastic…
Variational methods for parameter estimation are an active research area, potentially offering computationally tractable heuristics with theoretical performance bounds. We build on recent work that applies such methods to network data, and…
For affine stochastic differential equation with uniformly distributed time delay the local asymptotic properties of the likelihood function are studied. Local asymptotic normality, local asymptotic mixed normality, periodic local…