Related papers: Heavy-Tailed Distribution of Cyber-Risks
In this study we examine the nature of losses from cyber related events across different risk categories and business sectors. Using a leading industry dataset of cyber events, we evaluate the relationship between the frequency and severity…
Personal data breaches from organisations, enabling mass identity fraud, constitute an \emph{extreme risk}. This risk worsens daily as an ever-growing amount of personal data are stored by organisations and on-line, and the attack surface…
The size that an epidemic can reach, measured in terms of the number of fatalities, is an extremely relevant quantity. It has been recently claimed [Cirillo & Taleb, Nature Physics 2020] that the size distribution of major epidemics in…
Development of sustainable insurance for cyber risks, with associated benefits, inter alia requires reduction of ambiguity of the risk. Considering cyber risk, and data breaches in particular, as a man-made catastrophe clarifies the…
Retransmission-based failure recovery represents a primary approach in existing communication networks that guarantees data delivery in the presence of channel failures. Recent work has shown that, when data sizes have infinite support,…
Cyber security and resilience are major challenges in our modern economies; this is why they are top priorities on the agenda of governments, security and defense forces, management of companies and organizations. Hence, the need of a deep…
For the study of information propagation, one fundamental problem is uncovering universal laws governing the dynamics of information propagation. This problem, from the microscopic perspective, is formulated as estimating the propagation…
Statistical distributions with heavy tails are ubiquitous in natural and social phenomena. Since the entries in heavy tail have disproportional significance, the knowledge of its exact shape is very important. Citations of scientific papers…
We introduce cluster dynamical models of conflicts in which only the largest cluster can be involved in an action. This mimics the situations in which an attack is planned by a central body, and the largest attack force is used. We study…
We examine statistical pictures of violent conflicts over the last 2000 years, finding techniques for dealing with incompleteness and unreliability of historical data. We introduce a novel approach to apply extreme value theory to…
For measuring tail risk with scarce extreme events, extreme value analysis is often invoked as the statistical tool to extrapolate to the tail of a distribution. The presence of large datasets benefits tail risk analysis by providing more…
In this paper, we provide (i) a rigorous general theory to elicit conditions on (tail-dependent) heavy-tailed cyber-risk distributions under which a risk management firm might find it (non)sustainable to provide aggregate cyber-risk…
Given an arbitrary continuous probability density function, it is introduced a conjugated probability density, which is defined through the Shannon information associated with its cumulative distribution function. These new densities are…
Just like the degrees of human and animal interaction networks, the distribution of the times between interactions is known to often be right-skewed and fat-tailed. Both these distributions affect epidemic dynamics strongly, but, as we show…
Modern social media platforms facilitate the rapid spread of information online. Modelling phenomena such as social contagion and information diffusion are contingent upon a detailed understanding of the information-sharing processes. In…
The total number of fatalities of an epidemic outbreak is a dramatic but extremely informative quantity. Knowledge of the statistics of this quantity allows the calculation of the mean total number of fatalities conditioned to the fact that…
Federated Learning enables collaborative training of a global model across multiple geographically dispersed clients without the need for data sharing. However, it is susceptible to inference attacks, particularly label inference attacks.…
The probability distribution of number of ties of an individual in a social network follows a scale-free power-law. However, how this distribution arises has not been conclusively demonstrated in direct analyses of people's actions in…
Patterns of deliberate human activity and behavior are of utmost importance in areas as diverse as disease spread, resource allocation, and emergency response. Because of its widespread availability and use, e-mail correspondence provides…
In social networks, individuals constantly drop ties and replace them by new ones in a highly unpredictable fashion. This highly dynamical nature of social ties has important implications for processes such as the spread of information or…