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Monte Carlo methods are widely used importance sampling techniques for studying complex physical systems. Integrating these methods with deep learning has significantly improved efficiency and accuracy in high-dimensional problems and…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2024-12-24 Yixiong Ren , Jianhui Zhou

Importance sampling is a Monte Carlo technique for efficiently estimating the likelihood of rare events by biasing the sampling distribution towards the rare event of interest. By drawing weighted samples from a learned proposal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-20 Liam A. Kruse , Marc R. Schlichting , Mykel J. Kochenderfer

Monte Carlo and Quasi-Monte Carlo methods present a convenient approach for approximating the expected value of a random variable. Algorithms exist to adaptively sample the random variable until a user defined absolute error tolerance is…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-11-14 Aleksei G. Sorokin , Jagadeeswaran Rathinavel

Modern applications of Bayesian inference involve models that are sufficiently complex that the corresponding posterior distributions are intractable and must be approximated. The most common approximation is based on Markov chain Monte…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-15 Yue Yang , Ryan Martin , Howard Bondell

The performance of the Monte Carlo sampling methods relies on the crucial choice of a proposal density. The notion of optimality is fundamental to design suitable adaptive procedures of the proposal density within Monte Carlo schemes. This…

Computation · Statistics 2026-02-24 Fernando Llorente , Luca Martino

This paper investigates adaptive importance sampling algorithms for which the policy, the sequence of distributions used to generate the particles, is a mixture distribution between a flexible kernel density estimate (based on the previous…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-03-23 Bernard Delyon , François Portier

We study a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from the Gibbs measure with a non-convex energy function at a low temperature. We use the practical and popular geometric annealing schedule, and use a Langevin diffusion at each…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-13 Ruiyu Han , Gautam Iyer , Dejan Slepčev

In this paper, we derive a practical, general framework for creating adaptive iterative (linearization or splitting) algorithms to solve multi-physics problems. This means that, given an iterative method, we derive \textit{a posteriori}…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-01-26 Jakob S. Stokke , Kundan Kumar , Florin A. Radu

State-space models have been used in many applications, including econometrics, engineering, medical research, etc. The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of the static parameter of general state-space models is not straightforward because…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-04 Yuxiong Gao , Wentao Li , Rong Chen

Adaptive Markov chains are an important class of Monte Carlo methods for sampling from probability distributions. The time evolution of adaptive algorithms depends on past samples, and thus these algorithms are non-Markovian. Although there…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-10-02 Natesh S. Pillai , Aaron Smith

Sequential Monte Carlo methods which involve sequential importance sampling and resampling are shown to provide a versatile approach to computing probabilities of rare events. By making use of martingale representations of the sequential…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-02-22 Hock Peng Chan , Tze Leung Lai

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are a powerful tool for computation with complex probability distributions. However the performance of such methods is critically dependant on properly tuned parameters, most of which are difficult if…

Computation · Statistics 2021-10-27 James A. Brofos , Marylou Gabrié , Marcus A. Brubaker , Roy R. Lederman

Some classical uncertainty quantification problems require the estimation of multiple expectations. Estimating all of them accurately is crucial and can have a major impact on the analysis to perform, and standard existing Monte Carlo…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-02 Julien Demange-Chryst , François Bachoc , Jérôme Morio

We present a reduced-dimension, ballistic deposition, Monte Carlo particle packing algorithm and discuss its application to the analysis of the microstructure of hard-sphere systems with broad particle size distributions. We extend our…

Materials Science · Physics 2007-05-23 M. D. Webb , I. L. Davis

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are sampling methods that have become a commonly used tool in statistics, for example to perform Monte Carlo integration. As a consequence of the increase in computational power, many variations of…

Computation · Statistics 2021-06-14 F. Din-Houn Lau , Sebastian Krumscheid

There are numerous contexts where one wishes to describe the state of a randomly evolving system. Effective solutions combine models that quantify the underlying uncertainty with available observational data to form relatively optimal…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-11-27 Wonjung Lee , Terry Lyons

We investigate the performance of a class of particle filters (PFs) that can automatically tune their computational complexity by evaluating online certain predictive statistics which are invariant for a broad class of state-space models.…

Computation · Statistics 2021-04-26 Víctor Elvira , Joaquín Míguez , Petar M. Djurić

We propose extensions and improvements of the statistical analysis of distributed multipoles (SADM) algorithm put forth by Chipot et al. in [6] for the derivation of distributed atomic multipoles from the quantum-mechanical electrostatic…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2010-07-28 Nicolas Champagnat , Christophe Chipot , Erwan Faou

Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers are a class of stochastic algorithms for Monte Carlo integral estimation w.r.t. probability distributions, which combine elements of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and importance sampling/resampling…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Andreas Eberle , Carlo Marinelli

This article addresses online variational estimation in parametric state-space models. We propose a new procedure for efficiently computing the evidence lower bound and its gradient in a streaming-data setting, where observations arrive…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-09 Mathis Chagneux , Mathias Müller , Pierre Gloaguen , Sylvain Le Corff , Jimmy Olsson