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The tails of prehistory probability density in nonlinear multistable stochastic systems driven by white Gaussian noise, which has been a subject of recent study, are analyzed by employing the concepts of nonstationary optimal fluctuations.…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-08-31 B. E. Vugmeister , J. Botina , H. Rabitz

Macroscopic fluctuations have become an essential tool to understand physics far from equilibrium due to the link between their statistics and nonequilibrium ensembles. The optimal path leading to a fluctuation encodes key information on…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-03-13 N. Tizón-Escamilla , P. I. Hurtado , P. L. Garrido

Many complex real world phenomena exhibit abrupt, intermittent or jumping behaviors, which are more suitable to be described by stochastic differential equations under non-Gaussian L\'evy noise. Among these complex phenomena, the most…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-09-15 Wei Wei , Ting Gao , Jinqiao Duan , Xiaoli Chen

We formulate the stochastic dynamics of a particle subject to internal non-white (coloured) noise in terms of path-integrals. In the simplest case, where the noise is exponentially correlated, the weak-noise limit is characterised by…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2015-06-25 S. J. B. Einchcomb , A. J. McKane

According to empirical observations, some pattern formation phenomena in driven many-particle systems are more pronounced in the presence of a certain noise level. We investigate this phenomenon of fluctuation-driven ordering with a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-07 Dirk Helbing , Tadeusz Platkowski

The behavior of the most probable values of the order parameter $x$ and the amplitude $\phi$ of conjugate force fluctuations is studied for a stochastic system with a colored multiplicative noise with absorbing states. The phase diagrams…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 D. O. Kharchenko

A diffusive system coupled to unequal boundary reservoirs reaches a non-equilibrium steady state. While the full-counting-statistics of current fluctuations in these states are well understood for generic systems, results for steady-state…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-01-29 Soumyabrata Saha , Tridib Sadhu

We study local features, and provide a topological insight into the global structure of the probability density distribution and of the pattern of the optimal paths for large rare fluctuations away from a stable state. In contrast to…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-10-22 Mark I. Dykman , Mark M. Millonas , Vadim N. Smelyanskiy

In this paper, we consider discrete-time non-linear stochastic dynamical systems with additive process noise in which both the initial state and noise distributions are uncertain. Our goal is to quantify how the uncertainty in these…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-05-19 Steven Adams , Eduardo Figueiredo , Luca Laurenti

Noise-induced failures in the stabilization of an unstable orbit in the one-dimensional logistic map are considered as large fluctuations from a stable state. The properties of the large fluctuations are examined by determination and…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2009-11-10 I. A. Khovanov , N. A. Khovanova , P. V. E. McClintock

In the last few decades, noise-induced large fluctuations and transition phenomena have garnered significant attention in a variety of scientific contexts. The concept of prehistory probability has been proposed within the framework of…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-10 Feng Zhao , Jinjie Zhu , Yang Li , Xianbin Liu , Dongping Jin

Noisy fluctuations are ubiquitous in complex systems. They play a crucial or delicate role in the dynamical evolution of gene regulation, signal transduction, biochemical reactions, among other systems. Therefore, it is essential to…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2018-11-05 Jinqiao Duan , Hui Wang

This paper presents a heuristic derivation of a geometric minimum action method that can be used to determine most-probable transition paths in noise-driven dynamical systems. Particular attention is focused on systems that violate detailed…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-03-06 John C. Neu , Akhil Ghanta , Stephen Teitsworth

We consider fluctuations of the dissipated energy in nonlinear driven diffusive systems subject to bulk dissipation and boundary driving. With this aim, we extend the recently-introduced macroscopic fluctuation theory to nonlinear driven…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2013-10-29 P. I. Hurtado , A. Lasanta , A. Prados

We explore the distribution of paths followed in fluctuation-induced switching between coexisting stable states. We introduce a quantitative characteristic of the path distribution in phase space that does not require a priori knowledge of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-13 H. B. Chan , M. I. Dykman , C. Stambaugh

Deterministic chaotic dynamics presumes that the state space can be partitioned arbitrarily finely. In a physical system, the inevitable presence of some noise sets a finite limit to the finest possible resolution that can be attained. Much…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2016-12-07 Predrag Cvitanovic , Domenico Lippolis

We study the probability distribution and the escape rate in systems with delayed dissipation that comes from the coupling to a thermal bath. To logarithmic accuracy in the fluctuation intensity, the problem is reduced to a variational…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-04 M. I. Dykman , I. B. Schwartz

The unpredictability in chaotic scattering problems is a fundamental topic in physics that has been studied either in purely conservative systems or in the presence of weak perturbations. In many systems noise plays an important role in the…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2021-07-14 Alexandre R. Nieto , Jesús M. Seoane , Miguel A. F. Sanjuán

Distribution-dependent stochastic dynamical systems arise widely in engineering and science. We consider a class of such systems which model the limit behaviors of interacting particles moving in a vector field with random fluctuations. We…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-09-15 Wei Wei , Jianyu Hu

We focus on variational inference in dynamical systems where the discrete time transition function (or evolution rule) is modelled by a Gaussian process. The dominant approach so far has been to use a factorised posterior distribution,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-12-17 Alessandro Davide Ialongo , Mark van der Wilk , James Hensman , Carl Edward Rasmussen
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