Related papers: Bayesball: A Bayesian hierarchical model for evalu…
We propose and illustrate a hierarchical Bayesian approach for matching statistical records observed on different occasions. We show how this model can be profitably adopted both in record linkage problems and in capture--recapture setups,…
An important task for any large-scale organization is to prepare forecasts of key performance metrics. Often these organizations are structured in a hierarchical manner and for operational reasons, projections of these metrics may have been…
Statistical applications in sports have long centered on how to best separate signal (e.g. team talent) from random noise. However, most of this work has concentrated on a single sport, and the development of meaningful cross-sport…
Considering the flexibility and applicability of Bayesian modeling, in this work we revise the main characteristics of two hierarchical models in a regression setting. We study the full probabilistic structure of the models along with the…
Goals are results of pin-point shots and it is a pivotal decision in soccer when, how and where to shoot. The main contribution of this study is two-fold. At first, after showing that there exists high spatial correlation in the data of…
We develop a statistical framework to evaluate evidence of alleged cheating involving illegal signaling in sports from a forensic perspective. We explain why, instead of a frequentist procedure, a Bayesian approach is called for. We apply…
Traditional NBA player evaluation metrics are based on scoring differential or some pace-adjusted linear combination of box score statistics like points, rebounds, assists, etc. These measures treat performances with the outcome of the game…
Statistical modelling of sports data has become more and more popular in the recent years and different types of models have been proposed to achieve a variety of objectives: from identifying the key characteristics which lead a team to win…
In public health applications, spatial data collected are often recorded at different spatial scales and over different correlated variables. Spatial change of support is a key inferential problem in these applications and have become…
It is common to be interested in rankings or order relationships among entities. In complex settings where one does not directly measure a univariate statistic upon which to base ranks, such inferences typically rely on statistical models…
Hierarchical Bayesian methods enable information sharing across multiple related regression problems. While standard practice is to model regression parameters (effects) as (1) exchangeable across datasets and (2) correlated to differing…
Statistical modelling in the presence of data organized in groups is a crucial task in Bayesian statistics. The present paper conceives a mixture model based on a novel family of Bayesian priors designed for multilevel data and obtained by…
In the domain of Sport Analytics, Global Positioning Systems devices are intensively used as they permit to retrieve players' movements. Team sports' managers and coaches are interested on the relation between players' patterns of movements…
Stacking is a widely used model averaging technique that asymptotically yields optimal predictions among linear averages. We show that stacking is most effective when model predictive performance is heterogeneous in inputs, and we can…
Bayesian statistics has gained great momentum since the computational developments of the 1990s. Gradually, advances in Bayesian methodology and software have made Bayesian techniques much more accessible to applied statisticians and, in…
The field of quantitative analytics has transformed the world of sports over the last decade. To date, these analytic approaches are statistical at their core, characterizing what is and what was, while using this information to drive…
In sports analytics, player tracking data have driven significant advancements in the task of player evaluation. We present a novel generative framework for evaluating the observed frame-by-frame player positioning against a distribution of…
The baseball game is often seen as many contests that are performed between individuals. The duel between the pitcher and the batter, for example, is considered the engine that drives the sport. The pitchers use a variety of strategies to…
The presence or absence of winner-loser effects is a widely discussed phenomenon across both sports and psychology research. Investigation of such effects is often hampered by the limited availability of data. Online chess has exploded in…
This paper uses Bayesian tree models for statistical benchmarking in data sets with awkward marginals and complicated dependence structures. The method is applied to a very large database on corporate performance over the last four decades.…