Related papers: Multistep Bayesian strategy in coin-tossing games …
We study learning dynamics induced by strategic agents who repeatedly play a game with an unknown payoff-relevant parameter. In each step, an information system estimates a belief distribution of the parameter based on the players'…
Portfolio construction is the science of balancing reward and risk; it is at the core of modern finance. In this paper, we tackle the question of optimal decision-making within a Bayesian paradigm, starting from a decision-theoretic…
Given the cost and duration of phase III and phase IV clinical trials, the development of statistical methods for go/no-go decisions is vital. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian methodology to compute the probability of success based on…
In recent years, there has been a proliferation of online gambling sites, which made gambling more accessible with a consequent rise in related problems, such as addiction. Hence, the analysis of the gambling behaviour at both the…
We formulate an adaptive version of Kelly's horse model in which the gambler learns from past race results using Bayesian inference. A known asymptotic scaling for the difference between the growth rate of the gambler and the optimal growth…
Game AI systems need the theory of mind, which is the humanistic ability to infer others' mental models, preferences, and intent. Such systems would enable inferring players' behavior tendencies that contribute to the variations in their…
We study nonzero-sum hypothesis testing games that arise in the context of adversarial classification, in both the Bayesian as well as the Neyman-Pearson frameworks. We first show that these games admit mixed strategy Nash equilibria, and…
Bayesian computation crucially relies on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. In the case of massive data sets, running the Metropolis-Hastings sampler to draw from the posterior distribution becomes prohibitive due to the large…
When modeling robot interactions as Nash equilibrium problems, it is desirable to place coupled constraints which restrict these interactions to be safe and acceptable (for instance, to avoid collisions). Such games are continuous with…
Two-player zero-sum repeated games are well understood. Computing the value of such a game is straightforward. Additionally, if the payoffs are dependent on a random state of the game known to one, both, or neither of the players, the…
Consider a coin tossing experiment which consists of tossing one of two coins at a time, according to a renewal process. The first coin is fair and the second has probability $1/2 + \theta$, $\theta \in [-1/2,1/2]$, $\theta$ unknown but…
Security challenges accompany the efficiency. The pervasive integration of information and communications technologies (ICTs) makes cyber-physical systems vulnerable to targeted attacks that are deceptive, persistent, adaptive and…
The main purpose of this study is to introduce a semi-classical model describing betting scenarios in which, at variance with conventional approaches, the payoff of the gambler is encoded into the internal degrees of freedom of a quantum…
We demonstrate a Bayesian quantum game on an ion trap quantum computer with five qubits. The players share an entangled pair of qubits and perform rotations on their qubit as the strategy choice. Two five-qubit circuits are sufficient to…
Evolutionary game theory assumes that players replicate a highly scored player's strategy through genetic inheritance. However, when learning occurs culturally, it is often difficult to recognize someone's strategy just by observing the…
The variance measures the portfolio risks the investors are taking. The investor, who holds his portfolio and doesn't trade his shares, at the current time can use the time series of the market trades that were made during the averaging…
This analysis derives the maximum likelihood estimator and applies Bayesian inference to model geometric Brownian motion, incorporating jump diffusion to account for sudden market shifts. The Bayesian approach is implemented using Markov…
The Step out-Step in sequencing game is a particular example of a game from the sequencing game framework of Curiel, Perderzoli, and Tijs, where coalitions of players in a queue may reorder themselves to improve the their overall cost,…
Estimation and prediction in high dimensional multivariate factor stochastic volatility models is an important and active research area because such models allow a parsimonious representation of multivariate stochastic volatility. Bayesian…
In the paper it is proven that the two-players turn-based stochastic game "Risk or Safety" has a unique solution. Both players need to play the same strategy if they want to maximize their winning chances. An analytical method based on the…