Related papers: Current log-periodic view on future world market d…
A phenomenon of the financial log-periodicity is discussed and the characteristics that amplify its predictive potential are elaborated. The principal one is self-similarity that obeys across all the time scales. Furthermore the same…
Based on our "finance-prediction-oriented" methodology which involves such elements as log-periodic self-similarity, the universal preferred scaling factor lambda=2, and allows a phenomenon of the "super-bubble" we analyze the 2009 world…
A hypothesis that the financial log-periodicity, cascading self-similarity through various time scales, carries signatures of a law is pursued. It is shown that the most significant historical financial events can be classified amazingly…
We analyze the financial crash in 2008 for different financial markets from the point of view of log-periodic function model. In particular, we consider Dow Jones index, DAX index and Hang Seng index. We shortly discuss the possible…
By combining (i) the economic theory of rational expectation bubbles, (ii) behavioral finance on imitation and herding of investors and traders and (iii) the mathematical and statistical physics of bifurcations and phase transitions, the…
We critically review recent claims that financial crashes can be predicted using the idea of log-periodic oscillations or by other methods inspired by the physics of critical phenomena. In particular, the October 1997 `correction' does not…
This article continues our analysis of the gold price dynamics that was published in December 2010 (abs/1012.4118) and forecasted the possibility of the "burst of the gold bubble" in April - June 2011. Our recent analysis suggests the…
Log-periodic oscillations have been used to predict price trends and crashes on financial markets. So far two types of log-periodic oscillations have been associated with the real markets. The first type are oscillations which accompany a…
We propose that large stock market crashes are analogous to critical points studied in statistical physics with log-periodic correction to scaling. We extend our previous renormalization group model of stock market prices prior to and after…
We define a financial bubble as a period of unsustainable growth, when the price of an asset increases ever more quickly, in a series of accelerating phases of corrections and rebounds. More technically, during a bubble phase, the price…
We propose that imitation between traders and their herding behaviour not only lead to speculative bubbles with accelerating over-valuations of financial markets possibly followed by crashes, but also to ``anti-bubbles'' with decelerating…
By combining (i) the economic theory of rational expectation bubbles, (ii) behavioral finance on imitation and herding of investors and traders and (iii) the mathematical and statistical physics of bifurcations and phase transitions, the…
The predictions of the S&P 500 returns made in 2007 have been tested and the underlying models amended. The period between 2003 and 2008 should be described by the dependence of the S&P 500 stock market index on real GDP because the…
Twenty-two significant bubbles followed by large crashes or by severe corrections in the Argentinian, Brazilian, Chilean, Mexican, Peruvian, Venezuelan, Hong-Kong, Indonesian, Korean, Malaysian, Philippine and Thai stock markets indices are…
The presence of log-periodic structures before and after stock market crashes is considered to be an imprint of an intrinsic discrete scale invariance (DSI) in this complex system. The fractal framework of the theory leaves open the…
Since August 2000, the stock market in the USA as well as most other western markets have depreciated almost in synchrony according to complex patterns of drops and local rebounds. In \cite{SZ02QF}, we have proposed to describe this…
We argue that the word ``critical'' in the title is not purely literary. Based on our and other previous work on nonlinear complex dynamical systems, we summarize present evidence, on the Oct. 1929, Oct. 1987, Oct. 1987 Hong-Kong, Aug. 1998…
We present a synthesis of all the available empirical evidence in the light of recent theoretical developments for the existence of characteristic log-periodic signatures of growing bubbles in a variety of markets including 8 unrelated…
Following our previous investigation of the USA Standard and Poor index anti-bubble that started in August 2000, we analyze thirty eight world stock market indices and identify 21 anti-bubble. An ``anti-bubble'' is defined as a…
Financial markets exhibit alternating periods of rising and falling prices. Stock traders seeking to make profitable investment decisions have to account for those trends, where the goal is to accurately predict switches from bullish…