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A calculator program has been written to give confidence intervals on branching ratios for rare decay modes (or similar quantities) calculated from the number of events observed, the acceptance factor, the background estimate and the…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2011-07-19 Roger Barlow

The median absolute deviation (MAD) is a robust measure of scale that is simple to implement and easy to interpret. Motivated by this, we introduce interval estimators of the MAD to make reliable inferences for dispersion for a single…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-06 Chandima N. P. G. Arachchige , Luke A. Prendergast

Differential privacy is a restriction on data processing algorithms that provides strong confidentiality guarantees for individual records in the data. However, research on proper statistical inference, that is, research on properly…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2021-07-06 Joerg Drechsler , Ira Globus-Harris , Audra McMillan , Jayshree Sarathy , Adam Smith

In this article, we consider the problem of constructing the confidence interval and testing hypothesis for the common coefficient of variation (CV) of several normal populations. A new method is suggested using the concepts of generalized…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-05-05 Javad Behboodian , Ali Akbar Jafari

We introduce methods to bound the mean of a discrete distribution (or finite population) based on sample data, for random variables with a known set of possible values. In particular, the methods can be applied to categorical data with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-11-16 Eric Bax , Frédéric Ouimet

Image analysis frequently deals with shape estimation and image reconstruction. The ob jects of interest in these problems may be thought of as random sets, and one is interested in finding a representative, or expected, set. We consider a…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-06-09 Hanna K. Jankowski , Larissa I. Stanberry

We present a novel and easy-to-use method for calibrating error-rate based confidence intervals to evidence-based support intervals. Support intervals are obtained from inverting Bayes factors based on a parameter estimate and its standard…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-28 Samuel Pawel , Alexander Ly , Eric-Jan Wagenmakers

In this paper, we provide a general methodology to draw statistical inferences on individual signal coordinates or linear combinations of them in sparse phase retrieval. Given an initial estimator for the targeting parameter (some simple…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-29 Yisha Yao

In this paper, we derive an explicit formula for constructing the confidence interval of binomial parameter with guaranteed coverage probability. The formula overcomes the limitation of normal approximation which is asymptotic in nature and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-05-12 Xinjia Chen , Kemin Zhou , Jorge L. Aravena

We develop a general framework for conducting inference on the mean of dependent random variables given constraints on their dependency graph. We establish the consistency of an oracle variance estimator of the mean when the dependency…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-02-02 Peter M. Aronow , Forrest W. Crawford , José R. Zubizarreta

We show that the byproducts of the standard training process of a random forest yield not only the well known and almost computationally free out-of-bag point estimate of the model generalization error, but also give a direct path to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-14 Paulo C. Marques F

Results of numerical procedure of constructing confidence intervals for parameter of the Poisson distribution of signal events in the presence of background events with known value of parameter of Poisson distribution are presented. It is…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2007-05-23 S. I. Bityukov , N. V. Krasnikov , V. A. Taperechkina

Confidence intervals for the population mean of normally distributed data are some of the most standard statistical outputs one might want from a database. In this work we give practical differentially private algorithms for this task. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-09 Wenxin Du , Canyon Foot , Monica Moniot , Andrew Bray , Adam Groce

This paper derives confidence intervals (CI) and time-uniform confidence sequences (CS) for the classical problem of estimating an unknown mean from bounded observations. We present a general approach for deriving concentration bounds, that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-08-29 Ian Waudby-Smith , Aaditya Ramdas

The sample mean is often used to aggregate different unbiased estimates of a parameter, producing a final estimate that is unbiased but possibly high-variance. This paper introduces the Bayesian median of means, an aggregation rule that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-06-05 Paulo Orenstein

Point estimation of class prevalences in the presence of data set shift has been a popular research topic for more than two decades. Less attention has been paid to the construction of confidence and prediction intervals for estimates of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-07-23 Dirk Tasche

We study the frequentist properties of confidence intervals computed by the method known to statisticians as the Profile Likelihood. It is seen that the coverage of these intervals is surprisingly good over a wide range of possible…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-11-10 Wolfgang A. Rolke , Angel M. Lopez , Jan Conrad

The proposed approach extends the confidence posterior distribution to the semi-parametric empirical Bayes setting. Whereas the Bayesian posterior is defined in terms of a prior distribution conditional on the observed data, the confidence…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-05-02 David R. Bickel

The current standard for confidence interval construction in the context of a possibly misspecified model is to use an interval based on the sandwich estimate of variance. These intervals provide asymptotically correct coverage, but…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-12-31 James W. Harmon , Peter D. Hoff

Rating systems are ubiquitous, with applications ranging from product recommendation to teaching evaluations. Confidence intervals for functionals of rating data such as empirical means or quantiles are critical to decision-making in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-12-10 Robert Nowak , Ervin Tánczos