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Ex ante forecast outcomes should be interpreted as counterfactuals (potential histories), with errors as the spread between outcomes. Reapplying measurements of uncertainty about the estimation errors of the estimation errors of an…
In this paper, we consider how to provide fast estimates of flow-level tail latency performance for very large scale data center networks. Network tail latency is often a crucial metric for cloud application performance that can be affected…
Technical debt (TD) refers to delayed tasks and immature artifacts that may bring short-term benefits but incur extra costs of change during maintenance and evolution in the long term. TD has been extensively studied in the past decade, and…
Nowadays, many individuals and teams involved on projects are already using agile development techniques as part of their daily work. However, we have much less experience in how to scale and manage agile practices in distributed software…
We empirically study the activity patterns of individual blog-posting and find significant memory effects. The memory coefficient first decays in a power law and then turns to an exponential form. Moreover, the inter-event time distribution…
Open Source Software (OSS) sustainability relies on newcomers transitioning to core contributors, but this pipeline is broken, with most newcomers becoming inactive after initial contributions. Open Source Software for Social Good (OSS4SG)…
Architectural technical debt (ATD) represents trade-offs in software architecture that accelerate initial development but create long-term maintenance challenges. ATD, in particular when self-admitted, impacts the foundational structure of…
Data privacy and class imbalance are the norm rather than the exception in many machine learning tasks. Recent attempts have been launched to, on one side, address the problem of learning from pervasive private data, and on the other side,…
When a group of people strives to understand new information, struggle ensues as various ideas compete for attention. Steep learning curves are surmounted as teams learn together. To understand how these team dynamics play out in software…
We study the intermittent dynamics and the fluctuations of the dynamic correlation function of a simple aging system. Given its size $L$ and its coherence length $\xi$, the system can be divided into $N$ independent subsystems, where…
Software ecosystems built around programming languages have greatly facilitated software development. At the same time, their security has increasingly been acknowledged as a problem. To this end, the paper examines the previously…
We analyze a 19-year time series of North American electric power transmission system blackouts. Contrary to previously reported results we find a fatter than exponential decay in the distribution of inter-occurrence times and evidence of…
The technical state of software, i.e., its technical debt (TD) and maintainability are of increasing interest as ever more software is developed and deployed. Since td and maintainability are neither uniformly defined, not easy to…
The performance of database systems is usually characterised by their average-case (i.e., throughput) behaviour in standardised or de-facto standard benchmarks like TPC-X or YCSB. While tails of the latency (i.e., response time)…
A fundamental unit of work in programming is the code contribution ("commit") that a developer makes to the code base of the project in work. An author's commit frequency describes how often that author commits. Knowing the distribution of…
Forking-based development has made it easier and straightforward for developers to contribute to open-source software (OSS). Developers can fork an existing project and add changes in their local version without interrupting the development…
Free and Open Source Software (FOSS) communities' sustainability, meaning to remain operational without signs of weakening or interruptions to its development, is fundamental for the resilience and continuity of society's digital…
Context: Recent research has used data mining to develop techniques that can guide developers through source code changes. To the best of our knowledge, very few studies have investigated data mining techniques and--or compared their…
We use a series of pre-registered, incentive-compatible online experiments to investigate how people evaluate and choose among different waiting time distributions. Our main findings are threefold. First, consistent with prior literature,…
Volatility is a key measure of risk in financial analysis. The high volatility of one financial asset today could affect the volatility of another asset tomorrow. These lagged effects among volatilities - which we call volatility spillovers…