Related papers: Explicit Computations for a Filtering Problem with…
This paper develops a continuous-time filtering framework for estimating a hazard rate subject to an unobservable change-point. This framework naturally arises in both financial and insurance applications, where the default intensity of a…
We present a general model for default time, making precise the role of the intensity process, and showing that this process allows for a knowledge of the conditional distribution of the default only "before the default". This lack of…
Motivated by the interplay between structural and reduced form credit models, we propose to model the firm value process as a time-changed Brownian motion that may include jumps and stochastic volatility effects, and to study the first…
In this article, we consider a 2 factors-model for pricing defaultable bond with discrete default intensity and barrier where the 2 factors are stochastic risk free short rate process and firm value process. We assume that the default event…
Corporate defaults may be triggered by some major market news or events such as financial crises or collapses of major banks or financial institutions. With a view to develop a more realistic model for credit risk analysis, we introduce a…
We detect the parameter sensitivities of bond pricing which is driven by a Brownian motion and a compound Poisson process as the discontinuous case in credit risk research. The strict mathematical deductions are given theoretically due to…
This work focuses on financial risks from a probabilistic point of view. The value of a firm is described as a geometric Brownian motion and default emerges as a first passage time event. On the technical side, the critical threshold that…
In this paper we discuss a credit risk model with a pure jump L\'evy process for the asset value and an unobservable random barrier. The default time is the first time when the asset value falls below the barrier. Using the…
Temporal point processes are the dominant paradigm for modeling sequences of events happening at irregular intervals. The standard way of learning in such models is by estimating the conditional intensity function. However, parameterizing…
We propose a model for the credit markets in which the random default times of bonds are assumed to be given as functions of one or more independent "market factors". Market participants are assumed to have partial information about each of…
A Gaussian Cox process is a popular model for point process data, in which the intensity function is a transformation of a Gaussian process. Posterior inference of this intensity function involves an intractable integral (i.e., the…
We consider controller-stopper problems in which the controlled processes can have jumps. The global filtration is represented by the Brownian filtration, enlarged by the filtration generated by the jump process. We assume that there exists…
We study an optimal investment problem under contagion risk in a financial model subject to multiple jumps and defaults. The global market information is formulated as a progressive enlargement of a default-free Brownian filtration, and the…
We propose a constructive approach to building temporal point processes that incorporate dependence on their history. The dependence is modeled through the conditional density of the duration, i.e., the interval between successive event…
Estimation of the intensity of a point process is considered within a nonparametric framework. The intensity measure is unknown and depends on covariates, possibly many more than the observed number of jumps. Only a single trajectory of the…
The modeling of the probability of joint default or total number of defaults among the firms is one of the crucial problems to mitigate the credit risk since the default correlations significantly affect the portfolio loss distribution and…
Let $(X_t)_{t\ge0}$ be a continuous-time, time-homogeneous strong Markov process with possible jumps and let $\tau$ be its first hitting time of a Borel subset of the state space. Suppose $X$ is sampled at random times and suppose also that…
We study the default risk in incomplete information. That means, we model the value of a firm by one L\'evy process which is the sum of brownian motion with drift and compound Poisson process. This L\'evy process can not be observed…
The classical reduced-form and filtration expansion framework in credit risk is extended to the case of multiple, non-ordered defaults, assuming that conditional densities of the default times exist. Intensities and pricing formulas are…
We develop a recursive approach for deriving closed-form solutions to both conditional and unconditional moments of affine jump diffusions with state-independent jump intensities. Using these moment solutions, we construct closed-form…