Related papers: Decisions, Decisions, Decisions: Can Savage Salvag…
Decision-making under uncertainty and causal thinking are fundamental aspects of intelligent reasoning. Decision-making has been well studied when the available information is considered at the associative (probabilistic) level. The…
The general use of subjective probabilities to model belief has been justified using many axiomatic schemes. For example, ?consistent betting behavior' arguments are well-known. To those not already convinced of the unique fitness and…
While Evidence Theory (also known as Dempster-Shafer Theory, or Belief Functions Theory) is being increasingly used in data fusion, its potentialities in the Social and Life Sciences are often obscured by lack of awareness of its…
After experimenting with a number of non-probabilistic methods for dealing with uncertainty many researchers reaffirm a preference for probability methods [1] [2], although this remains controversial. The importance of being able to form…
QBism pursues the real by first eliminating the elements of quantum theory too fragile to be ontologies on their own. Thereafter, it seeks an "ontological lesson" from whatever remains. Here, we explore this program by highlighting three…
The aim of this paper is to show that partial probability can be justified from the standpoint of subjective probability in much the same way as classical probability does. The seminal works of Ramsey and De Finetti have furnished a method…
We attempt to make superdeterminism more intuitive, notably by simulating a deterministic model system, a billiard game. In this system an initial 'bang' correlates all events, just as in the superdeterministic universe. We introduce the…
I think we can agree that dealing with uncertainty is not easy. Probability is the main tool for dealing with uncertainty, and we know there are many probability-related puzzles and paradoxes. Here I describe a rather idiosyncratic…
One of quantum theory's salient features is its apparent indeterminism, i.e. measurement outcomes are typically probabilistic. We formally define and address whether this uncertainty is unavoidable or whether post-quantum theories can offer…
A "geometric" intepretation of probability is proposed, modelled on the treatment of tense in 4-dimensional spacetime. It is applied to Everett's approach to quantum mechanics, as formulated in terms of consistent histories. Standard…
In canonical quantization of gravity the wave function of the universe is CPT invariant. Thus, if the quantum state of the universe contains a particular history, than it must contain, with the same probability, the time-reversed image of…
We view sorites in terms of stimuli acting upon a system and evoking this system's responses. Supervenience of responses on stimuli implies that they either lack tolerance (i.e., they change in every vicinity of some of the stimuli), or…
A simple proof is given that the probabilities of observations in a large universe are not given directly by Born's rule as the expectation values of projection operators in a global quantum state of the entire universe. An alternative…
If the quantum mechanical description of reality is not complete and a hidden variable theory is possible, what arises is the problem to explain where the rates of the outcomes of statistical experiments come from, as already noticed by…
In quantum theory, it is widely accepted that all experimental results must agree with theoretical predictions based on the Copenhagen interpretation. However the classical system in the Copenhagen interpretation has not been defined yet.…
The disjunction effect in human decision making is often taken to show that the classical law of total probability is violated, motivating quantum-like models. We re-examine this claim for the Prisoner's Dilemma disjunction effect. Under…
Quantum theory in a global space-time gives rise to non-local correlations, which cannot be explained causally in a satisfactory way; this motivates the study of theories with reduced global assumptions. Oreshkov, Costa, and Brukner (2012)…
When a conscious observer is part of a quantum mechanical system, rule (4) cuts off solutions to the Schrodinger equation. It is important to show that this interruption of the Hamiltonian dynamics does not effect the statistical…
Shafer's theory of belief and the Bayesian theory of probability are two alternative and mutually inconsistent approaches toward modelling uncertainty in artificial intelligence. To help reduce the conflict between these two approaches,…
Considerable effort has been devoted to deriving the Born rule (e.g. that $|\psi(x)|^2 dx$ is the probability of finding a system, described by $\psi$, between $x$ and $x + dx$) in quantum mechanics. Here we show that the Born rule is not…