Related papers: Earthquake Prediction: Probabilistic Aspect
A multicomponent random process used as a model for the problem of space-time earthquake prediction; this allows us to develop consistent estimation for conditional probabilities of large earthquakes if the values of the predictor…
The quality of earthquake prediction is usually characterized by a two-dimensional diagram 'n' vs. 'tau', where 'n' is the rate of failures-to-predict and 'tau' is a characteristic of space- time alarm. Unlike the time prediction case, the…
Earthquakes occur because of abrupt slips on faults due to accumulated stress in the Earth's crust. Because most of these faults and their mechanisms are not readily apparent, deterministic earthquake prediction is difficult. For effective…
If we assume that earthquakes are chaotic, and influenced locally then chaos theory suggests that there should be a temporal association between earthquakes in a local region that should be revealed with statistical examination. To date no…
This paper is an attempt for arguing the possibility for short time when, where and how Earthquakes prediction. The local when Earthquake prediction is based on the connection between geomagnetic quakes and the next incoming minimum or…
We present an axiomatic approach to earthquake forecasting in terms of multi-component random fields on a lattice. This approach provides a method for constructing point estimates and confidence intervals for conditional probabilities of…
This paper describes the use of the idea of natural time to propose a new method for characterizing the seismic risk to the world's major cities at risk of earthquakes. Rather than focus on forecasting, which is the computation of…
This paper provides theoretical and practical arguments regarding the possibility of predicting strong and major earthquakes worldwide. Many strong and major earthquakes can be predicted at least two to five months in advance, based on…
The quality of space-time earthquake prediction is usually characterized by a two-dimensional error diagram (n,tau), where 'n' is the rate of failures-to-predict and 'tau' is the normalized measure of space-time alarm. The most interesting…
Since long back, scientists have been putting enormous effort to understand earthquake dynamics -the goal is to develop a successful prediction scheme which can provide reliable alarm that an earthquake is imminent. Model studies sometimes…
A crucial point in the debate on feasibility of earthquake prediction is the dependence of an earthquake magnitude from past seismicity. Indeed, whilst clustering in time and space is widely accepted, much more questionable is the existence…
Statistical tests of earthquake predictions require a null hypothesis to model occasional chance successes. To define and quantify `chance success' is knotty. Some null hypotheses ascribe chance to the Earth: Seismicity is modeled as…
No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months). However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. These are primarily based on the…
Stochastic models of point patterns in space and time are widely used to issue forecasts or assess risk, and often they affect societally relevant decisions. We adapt the concept of consistent scoring functions and proper scoring rules,…
The distribution of inter-occurrence time between seismic events is a quantity of great interest in seismic risk assessment. We evaluate this distribution for different models of earthquakes occurrence and follow two distinct approaches:…
Scaling analysis reveals striking regularities in earthquake occurrence. The time between any one earthquake and that following it is random, but it is described by the same universal-probability distribution for any spatial region and…
Paper presents a new view of seismic risk and tectonic stress reduction in the earthquake focus
A novel geomechanics concept is presented for studying the behavior of geomaterials and structures by capturing the underlying dynamics as realistically as possible for earthquake excitation applied in time domain. Enormous amount of…
Earthquakes rank among the most destructive manifestations of the Earth's dynamics. Can they be predicted? This is often the first question students ask. To answer that right away: no, at present it is not possible to anticipate the date,…
Statistical properties of earthquakes are studied both by the analysis of real earthquake catalog of Japan and by numerical computer simulations of the spring-block model in both one and two dimensions. Particular attention is paid to the…