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We investigate the asymptotic behavior as time goes to infinity of Hawkes processes whose regression kernel has $L^1$ norm close to one and power law tail of the form $x^{-(1+\alpha)}$, with $\alpha\in(0,1)$. We in particular prove that…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-04-14 Thibault Jaisson , Mathieu Rosenbaum

Causal inference for extreme events has many potential applications in fields such as climate science, medicine and economics. We study the extremal quantile treatment effect of a binary treatment on a continuous, heavy-tailed outcome.…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-06 David Deuber , Jinzhou Li , Sebastian Engelke , Marloes H. Maathuis

In this article, we consider a non-parametric Bayesian approach to multivariate quantile regression. The collection of related conditional distributions of a response vector Y given a univariate covariate X is modeled using a Dependent…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-03 Indrabati Bhattacharya , Subhashis Ghosal

Linear fractional Galton-Watson branching processes in i.i.d.~random environment are, on the quenched level, intimately connected to random difference equations by the evolution of the random parameters of their linear fractional marginals.…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-10-01 Gerold Alsmeyer

Quantile regression is a powerful statistical methodology that complements the classical linear regression by examining how covariates influence the location, scale, and shape of the entire response distribution and offering a global view…

Applications · Statistics 2013-09-11 Lu Xiaoming , Fan Zhaozhi

Higher-order tree-level processes in strong laser fields, i.e. cascades, are in general extremely difficult to calculate, but in some regimes the dominant contribution comes from a sequence of first-order processes, i.e. nonlinear Compton…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2020-08-05 Victor Dinu , Greger Torgrimsson

Quantile regression is often used when a comprehensive relationship between a response variable and one or more explanatory variables is desired. The traditional frequentists' approach to quantile regression has been well developed around…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-06-03 Yang Feng , Yuguo Chen , Xuming He

We consider estimation of quantile curves for a general class of nonstationary processes. Consistency and central limit results are obtained for local linear quantile estimates under a mild short-range dependence condition. Our results are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-08-26 Zhou Zhou , Wei Biao Wu

In this paper, we give precise rates of convergence in the strong invariance principle for stationary sequences of bounded real-valued random variables satisfying weak dependence conditions. One of the main ingredients is a new Fuk-Nagaev…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-07-06 J Dedecker , F Merlevède , Emmanuel Rio

By a classical principle of probability theory, sufficiently thin subsequences of general sequences of random variables behave like i.i.d.\ sequences. This observation not only explains the remarkable properties of lacunary trigonometric…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-07-27 I. Berkes , R. Tichy

Following Cs\"{o}rg\H{o}, Szyszkowicz and Wang (Ann. Statist. {\bf 34}, (2006), 1013--1044) we consider a long range dependent linear sequence. We prove weak convergence of the uniform Vervaat and the uniform Vervaat error processes,…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-03-28 Miklós Csörgő , Rafał Kulik

Modeling biological processes is a highly demanding task because not all processes are fully understood. Mathematical models allow us to test hypotheses about possible mechanisms of biological processes. The mathematical mechanisms…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-12-11 Cordula Reisch , Hannah Burmester

Learning the causal-interaction network of multivariate Hawkes processes is a useful task in many applications. Maximum-likelihood estimation is the most common approach to solve the problem in the presence of long observation sequences.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-04 Farnood Salehi , William Trouleau , Matthias Grossglauser , Patrick Thiran

For temporal regularly spaced datasets, a lot of methods are available and the properties of these methods are extensively investigated. Less research has been performed on irregular temporal datasets subject to measurement error with…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-03-15 Haiyan Liu , Jeanine Houwing-Duistermaat

This paper is devoted to the introduction of a new class of consistent estimators of the fractal dimension of locally self-similar Gaussian processes. These estimators are based on convex combinations of sample quantiles of discrete…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Jean-François Coeurjolly

Traditionally, assessing the accuracy of inference based on regression quantiles has relied on the Bahadur representation. This provides an error of order $n^{-1/4}$ in normal approximations, and suggests that inference based on regression…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-10-04 Stephen Portnoy

Power-law distributions are typical macroscopic features occurring in almost all complex systems observable in nature. As a result, researchers in quantitative analyses must often generate random synthetic variates obeying power-law…

Physics and Society · Physics 2014-11-11 Filippo Radicchi

By using the large deviation principle, we investigate the expected exit time from the interval [-1,1] of a process of autoregressive type. The case when the autoregression function f is linear and the innovations have a normal distribution…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-12-19 Göran Högnäs , Brita Jung

When a spatial process is recorded over time and the observation at a given time instant is viewed as a point in a function space, the result is a time series taking values in a Banach space. To study the spatio-temporal extremal dynamics…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-01-20 Thomas Meinguet , Johan Segers

We investigate the dynamics of a quantum particle in disordered tight-binding models in one and two dimensions which are exceptions to the common wisdom on Anderson localization, in the sense that the localization length diverges at some…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2015-03-17 P. L. Krapivsky , J. M. Luck
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