Related papers: Nonlinear Dynamics, Magnitude-Period Formula and F…
Earthquakes are rupture-like processes that propagate along tectonic faults and cause seismic waves. The propagation speed and final area of the rupture, which determine an earthquake's potential impact, are directly related to the nature…
Scaling analysis reveals striking regularities in earthquake occurrence. The time between any one earthquake and that following it is random, but it is described by the same universal-probability distribution for any spatial region and…
``Remote triggering" refers to the inducement of earthquakes by weak perturbations that emanate from far away sources, typically intense earthquakes that happen at much larger distances than their nearby aftershocks, sometimes even around…
Our understanding of earthquakes is based on the theory of plate tectonics. Earthquake dynamics is the study of the interactions of plates (solid disjoint parts of the lithosphere) which produce seismic activity. Over the last about fifty…
A semiconductor model of rocks is shown to describe unipolar magnetic pulses, a phenomenon that has been observed prior to earthquakes. These pulses are observable because their extremely long wavelength allows them to pass through the…
Seeing the Earth crust as crisscrossed by faults filled with fluid at close to lithostatic pressures, we develop a model in which its elastic modulii are different in net tension versus compression. In constrast with standard nonlinear…
Tectonic deformation crucially shapes the Earth's surface, with strain localization resulting in the formation of shear zones and faults that accommodate significant tectonic displacement. Earthquake dynamic rupture models, which provide…
We study a new type of magnetoconvection in a nonuniform rotating plasma layer under a constant vertical magnetic field. To describe the weakly nonlinear stage of convection we apply Galerkin-truncated approximation and we obtain the system…
We present two models for estimating the probabilities of future earthquakes in California, to be tested in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). The first, time-independent model, modified from Helmstetter et…
The driving concept behind one of the most successful statistical forecasting models, the ETAS model, has been that the seismicity is driven by spontaneously occurring background earthquakes that cascade into multitudes of triggered…
Natural earthquake fault systems are highly non-homogeneous. The inhomogeneities occur be- cause the earth is made of a variety of materials which hold and dissipate stress differently. In this work, we study scaling in earthquake fault…
An attempt to construct a phenomenological theory of earthquakes is being undertaken by a small research team, which includes the author. We have only taken the first steps towards goal, but the results already obtained convincingly…
Simple models for ruptures along a heterogeneous earthquake fault zone are studied, focussing on the interplay between the roles of disorder and dynamical effects. A class of models are found to operate naturally at a critical point whose…
Statistical tests of earthquake predictions require a null hypothesis to model occasional chance successes. To define and quantify `chance success' is knotty. Some null hypotheses ascribe chance to the Earth: Seismicity is modeled as…
A mathematical model for an elastoplastic porous continuum subject to large strains in combination with reversible damage (aging), evolving porosity, water and heat transfer is advanced. The inelastic response is modeled within the frame of…
Complex Earth System Models are widely utilised to make conditional statements about the future climate under some assumptions about changes in future atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations; these statements are often referred to as…
There is a clear distinction between simple laminar and complex turbulent fluids. But in some cases, as for the nocturnal planetary boundary layer, a stable and well-ordered flow can develop intense and sporadic bursts of turbulent activity…
A novel geomechanics concept is presented for studying the behavior of geomaterials and structures by capturing the underlying dynamics as realistically as possible for earthquake excitation applied in time domain. Enormous amount of…
This paper presents a new technical method for computing calendar time forecasts in a local area for large earthquakes of a target magnitude MT using a count small earthquakes MS < MT in the area, together with the Gutenberg-Richter (GR)…
The emergence of a power-law distribution for the energy released during an earthquake is investigated in several models. Generic features are identified which are based on the self-affine behavior of the stress field prior to an event.…