Related papers: Forecasting with time-varying vector autoregressiv…

High-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models are important tools for the analysis of multivariate time series. This paper focuses on high-dimensional time series and on the different regularized estimation procedures proposed for…

This paper provides an insight to the time-varying dynamics of the shape of the distribution of financial return series by proposing an exponential weighted moving average model that jointly estimates volatility, skewness and kurtosis over…

We introduce Temporal Variational Implicit Neural Representations (TV-INRs), a probabilistic framework for modeling irregular multivariate time series that enables efficient individualized imputation and forecasting. By integrating implicit…

We revisit macroeconomic time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs), whose persistent coefficients may adapt too slowly to large, abrupt shifts such as those during major crises. We explore the performance of an…

Time series forecasting is often fundamental to scientific and engineering problems and enables decision making. With ever increasing data set sizes, a trivial solution to scale up predictions is to assume independence between interacting…

This paper introduces a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with stochastic volatility-in-mean and time-varying skewness. Unlike previous approaches, the proposed model allows both volatility and skewness to directly affect macroeconomic…

In this paper we develop a Bayesian procedure for estimating multivariate stochastic volatility (MSV) using state space models. A multiplicative model based on inverted Wishart and multivariate singular beta distributions is proposed for…

Predictive linear and nonlinear models based on kernel machines or deep neural networks have been used to discover dependencies among time series. This paper proposes an efficient nonlinear modeling approach for multiple time series, with a…

Time-varying parameter VARs with stochastic volatility are routinely used for structural analysis and forecasting in settings involving a few endogenous variables. Applying these models to high-dimensional datasets has proved to be…

Modeling the time-varying covariance structures of high-dimensional variables is critical across diverse scientific and industrial applications; however, existing approaches exhibit notable limitations in either modeling flexibility or…

Vector autoregressive (VAR) models assume linearity between the endogenous variables and their lags. This assumption might be overly restrictive and could have a deleterious impact on forecasting accuracy. As a solution, we propose…

High-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models provide a flexible framework for characterizing dynamic dependence in multivariate spatio-temporal systems, but their unrestricted estimation becomes infeasible when multiple variables are…

Time Series forecasting (univariate and multivariate) is a problem of high complexity due the different patterns that have to be detected in the input, ranging from high to low frequencies ones. In this paper we propose a new model for…

In contemporary neuroscience, a key area of interest is dynamic effective connectivity, which is crucial for understanding the dynamic interactions and causal relationships between different brain regions. Dynamic effective connectivity can…

Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are widely used in multivariate time series analysis for describing the short-time dynamics of the data. The reduced-rank VAR models are of particular interest when dealing with high-dimensional and highly…

Accurate volatility forecasts are vital in modern finance for risk management, portfolio allocation, and strategic decision-making. However, existing methods face key limitations. Fully multivariate models, while comprehensive, are…

We consider the estimation of the transition matrix in the high-dimensional time-varying vector autoregression (TV-VAR) models. Our model builds on a general class of locally stationary VAR processes that evolve smoothly in time. We propose…

The vector autoregressive (VAR) model has been used to describe the dependence within and across multiple time series. This is a model for stationary time series which can be extended to allow the presence of a deterministic trend in each…

We consider Bayesian tensor vector autoregressions (TVARs) in which the VAR coefficients are arranged as a three-dimensional array or tensor, and this coefficient tensor is parameterized using a low-rank CP decomposition. We develop a…

In data science, vector autoregression (VAR) models are popular in modeling multivariate time series in the environmental sciences and other applications. However, these models are computationally complex with the number of parameters…