Related papers: Statistical Models for Solar Flare Interval Distri…
A stochastic model for the energy of a flaring solar active region is presented, generalising and extending the approach of Wheatland & Glukhov (1998). The probability distribution for the free energy of an active region is described by the…
We describe a new tool developed for solar flare forecasting on the base of some sunspot group properties. Assuming that the flare frequency follows the Poisson statistics, this tool uses a database containing the morphological…
A number of methods of flare prediction rely on classification of physical characteristics of an active region, in particular optical classification of sunspots, and historical rates of flaring for a given classification. However these…
Solar active regions and the processes that occur in them have been extensively studied and analyzed and many types of models and characterizations have been proposed for the occurrence of different eruptive events that take place in the…
The distribution of interval times between recurrent discrete events, such as Solar and stellar flares, reflects their underlying dynamics. Log-normal functions provide good fits to the interval time distributions of many recurrent…
Solar flares are extremely energetic phenomena in our Solar System. Their impulsive, often drastic radiative increases, in particular at short wavelengths, bring immediate impacts that motivate solar physics and space weather research to…
Ways to give medium- and short-term predictions of solar flares are proposed according to the statistical analysis of events during solar cycle 23. On one hand, the time distribution of both C and M class flares shows two main periods of…
The light curves of solar flares in the impulsive phase are complex in general, indicating that multiple physical processes are involved in. With the GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) observations, we find that there…
Sympathetic solar flares are eruptions that occur nearby in space and time, driven by an apparent interaction between the active regions in which they are triggered. Their statistical existence on the Sun has yet to be firmly established.…
We use Renewal Theory for the estimation and interpretation of the flare rate from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) soft X-ray flare catalogue. It is found, that in addition to the flare rate variability with the…
We studied the soft X-ray data of solar flares and found that the distribution functions of flare fluence are successfully modeled by tapered power law or gamma function distributions whose power exponent is slightly smaller than 2,…
Solar flares originate from magnetically active regions but not all solar active regions give rise to a flare. Therefore, the challenge of solar flare prediction benefits by an intelligent computational analysis of physics-based properties…
Solar flares are large-scale releases of energy in the solar atmosphere, which are characterised by rapid changes in the hydrodynamic properties of plasma from the photosphere to the corona. Solar physicists have typically attempted to…
Solar flares occur in complex sunspot groups, but it remains unclear how the probability of producing a flare of a given magnitude relates to the characteristics of the sunspot group. Here, we use Geostationary Operational Environmental…
It was recently pointed out that the distribution of times between solar flares (the flare waiting-time distribution) follows a power law, for long waiting times. Based on 25 years of soft X-ray flares observed by Geostationary Operational…
The analysis of long-term variations of several solar activity indices (AI) since in last 40 years has been performed. We studied the AI which characterize the fluxes from different areas in solar atmosphere. Our consideration of mutual…
The precise physical process that triggers solar flares is not currently understood. Here we attempt to capture the signature of this mechanism in solar image data of various wavelengths and use these signatures to predict flaring activity.…
Solar active regions contain electric currents. Information on the distribution of currents is important for understanding the processes of energy release on the surface of the Sun and in the overlying layers. The paper presents an analysis…
A magnetic power spectral analysis is performed on 53 solar active regions, observed from August 2011 to July 2012. Magnetic field data obtained from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager, inverted as Active Region Patches, are used to study…
Solar flares are events of intense scientific interest. Although certain solar conditions are known to be associated with flare activity, the exact location and timing of an individual flare on the Sun cannot as yet be predicted with…