Related papers: Getting Your Eye In: A Bayesian Analysis of Early …
In typical real-time strategy (RTS) games, enemy units are visible only when they are within sight range of a friendly unit. Knowledge of an opponent's disposition is limited to what can be observed through scouting. Information is costly,…
Platform trials evaluate multiple experimental treatments against a common control group (and/or against each other), which often reduces the trial duration and sample size. Bayesian platform designs offer several practical advantages,…
Measuring the causal impact of an advertising campaign on sales is an essential task for advertising companies. Challenges arise when companies run advertising campaigns in multiple stores which are spatially correlated, and when the sales…
In this paper, we propose a Bayesian predictive density estimator to predict the time until the r-th goal is scored in a hockey game, using ancillary information such as their performances in the past, points and specialists' opinions. To…
In this article, we study the decision-making process of chess players by using a chess engine to evaluate the moves across different pools of games. We quantified the decisiveness of each move during the games using a metric derived from…
We explore the notion of uncertainty in the context of modern abstractive summarization models, using the tools of Bayesian Deep Learning. Our approach approximates Bayesian inference by first extending state-of-the-art summarization models…
Many statistical models can be simulated forwards but have intractable likelihoods. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods are used to infer properties of these models from data. Traditionally these methods approximate the posterior…
Cricket is undoubtedly one of the most popular games in this modern era. As human beings are prone to error, there remains a constant need for automated analysis and decision making of different events in this game. Simultaneously, with…
In 2024, Major League Baseball released new bat tracking data, reporting swing-by-swing bat speed and swing length measured at the point of contact. While exciting, the data present challenges for their interpretation. The timing of the…
Quasi-Bayesian theory uses convex sets of probability distributions and expected loss to represent preferences about plans. The theory focuses on decision robustness, i.e., the extent to which plans are affected by deviations in subjective…
The is no other model or hypothesis verification tool in Bayesian statistics that is as widely used as the Bayes factor. We focus on generative models that are likelihood-free and, therefore, render the computation of Bayes factors…
The baseball game is often seen as many contests that are performed between individuals. The duel between the pitcher and the batter, for example, is considered the engine that drives the sport. The pitchers use a variety of strategies to…
Empirical Bayes methods have been around for a long time and have a wide range of applications. These methods provide a way in which historical data can be aggregated to provide estimates of the posterior mean. This thesis revisits some of…
This article presents a Bayesian approach for predicting and identifying the factors which most influence an individual's propensity to fall into the category of Not in Employment Education or Training (NEET). The approach partitions the…
Domain experts often possess valuable physical insights that are overlooked in fully automated decision-making processes such as Bayesian optimisation. In this article we apply high-throughput (batch) Bayesian optimisation alongside…
In recent times empirical likelihood has been widely applied under Bayesian framework. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are frequently employed to sample from the posterior distribution of the parameters of interest. However,…
An early phase clinical trial is the first step in evaluating the effects in humans of a potential new anti-disease agent or combination of agents. Usually called "phase I" or "phase I/II" trials, these experiments typically have the…
Bayesian methods have proven themselves to be successful across a wide range of scientific problems and have many well-documented advantages over competing methods. However, these methods run into difficulties for two major and prevalent…
We target the problem of accuracy and robustness in causal inference from finite data sets. Some state-of-the-art algorithms produce clear output complete with solid theoretical guarantees but are susceptible to propagating erroneous…
Bayesian and frequentist methods differ in many aspects, but share some basic optimality properties. In practice, there are situations in which one of the methods is more preferred by some criteria. We consider the case of inference about a…