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We study the joint laws of a continuous, uniformly integrable martingale, its maximum, and its minimum. In particular, we give explicit martingale inequalities which provide upper and lower bounds on the joint exit probabilities of a…
A random variable $\xi$ has a {\it light-tailed} distribution (for short: is light-tailed) if it possesses a finite exponential moment, $\E \exp (\lambda \xi) <\infty$ for some $\lambda >0$, and has a {\it heavy-tailed} distribution (is…
We consider linear two-time-scale stochastic approximation algorithms driven by martingale noise. Recent applications in machine learning motivate the need to understand finite-time error rates, but conventional stochastic approximation…
There is an increasing interest to understand the dependence structure of a random vector not only in the center of its distribution but also in the tails. Extreme-value theory tackles the problem of modelling the joint tail of a…
Expectiles define the only law-invariant, coherent and elicitable risk measure apart from the expectation. The popularity of expectile-based risk measures is steadily growing and their properties have been studied for independent data, but…
We obtain non asymptotic concentration bounds for two kinds of stochastic approximations. We first consider the deviations between the expectation of a given function of the Euler scheme of some diffusion process at a fixed deterministic…
In the propositional setting, the marginal problem is to find a (maximum-entropy) distribution that has some given marginals. We study this problem in a relational setting and make the following contributions. First, we compare two…
In this paper, we consider the problem of linear regression with heavy-tailed distributions. Different from previous studies that use the squared loss to measure the performance, we choose the absolute loss, which is capable of estimating…
For differentiable dynamical systems with dominated splittings, we give upper estimates on the measure-theoretic tail entropy in terms of Lyapunov exponents. As our primary application, we verify the upper semi-continuity of metric entropy…
In this paper, we consider a stochastic system described by a differential equation admitting a spatially varying random coefficient. The differential equation has been employed to model various static physics systems such as elastic…
Many management decisions involve accumulated random realizations for which only the first and second moments of their distribution are available. The sharp Chebyshev-type bound for the tail probability and Scarf bound for the expected loss…
We consider the problem of guessing the realization of a random variable but under more general Tsallis' non-extensive entropic framework rather than the classical Maxwell-Boltzman-Gibbs-Shannon framework. We consider both the conditional…
We prove nonasymptotic matrix concentration inequalities for the spectral norm of (sub)gaussian random matrices with centered independent entries that capture fluctuations at the Tracy-Widom scale. This considerably improves previous bounds…
We provide a general methodology for unbiased estimation for intractable stochastic models. We consider situations where the target distribution can be written as an appropriate limit of distributions, and where conventional approaches…
Extreme value theory provides an asymptotically justified framework for estimation of exceedance probabilities in regions where few or no observations are available. For multivariate tail estimation, the strength of extremal dependence is…
In this article two methods to distinguish between polynomial and exponential tails are introduced. The methods are mainly based on the properties of the residual coefficient of variation for the exponential and non-exponential…
The analysis of extremal dependence in high dimensions has recently attracted considerable interest. Existing methodology primarily focuses on modeling and estimation of extremal dependence structures, often supported by concentration…
Randomized trace estimation is a popular and well studied technique that approximates the trace of a large-scale matrix $B$ by computing the average of $x^T Bx$ for many samples of a random vector $X$. Often, $B$ is symmetric positive…
We study the existence, strong consistency and asymptotic normality of estimators obtained from estimating functions, that are p-dimensional martingale transforms. The problem is motivated by the analysis of evolutionary clustered data,…
In a prequential approach to algorithmic randomness, probabilities for the next outcome can be forecast `on the fly' without the need for fully specifying a probability measure on all possible sequences of outcomes, as is the case in the…