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Related papers: Exchangeable lower previsions

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In this article we demonstrate the relationship between finitely exchangeable arrays and finitely exchangeable sequences. We then derive sharp bounds on the total variation distance between distributions of finitely and infinitely…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-02-25 Alexander Volfovsky , Edoardo Airoldi

De Finetti's betting argument is used to justify finitely additive probabilities when only finitely many bets are considered. Under what circumstances can countably many bets be used to justify countable additivity? In this framework, one…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-05-08 Rafael Bassi Stern , Joseph Born Kadane

This paper studies distribution-free inference in settings where the data set has a hierarchical structure -- for example, groups of observations, or repeated measurements. In such settings, standard notions of exchangeability may not hold.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-05 Yonghoon Lee , Rina Foygel Barber , Rebecca Willett

Motivated by statistical practice, category theory terminology is used to introduce Borel data structures and study exchangeability in an abstract framework. A generalization of de Finetti's theorem is shown and natural transformations are…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-08-24 Julian Gerstenberg

Mixtures of product distributions are a powerful device for learning about heterogeneity within data populations. In this class of latent structure models, de Finetti's mixing measure plays the central role for describing the uncertainty…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-09-27 Yun Wei , XuanLong Nguyen

We recall some of the history of the information-theoretic approach to deriving core results in probability theory and indicate parts of the recent resurgence of interest in this area with current progress along several interesting…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-04-28 Lampros Gavalakis , Ioannis Kontoyiannis

A length-$n$ random sequence $X_1,\ldots,X_n$ in a space $S$ is finitely exchangeable if its distribution is invariant under all $n!$ permutations of coordinates. Given $N > n$, we study the extendibility problem: when is it the case that…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-12-14 Takis Konstantopoulos , Linglong Yuan

We study how to infer new choices from previous choices in a conservative manner. To make such inferences, we use the theory of choice functions: a unifying mathematical framework for conservative decision making that allows one to impose…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-07-16 Arne Decadt , Jasper De Bock , Gert de Cooman

The standard coherence criterion for lower previsions is expressed using an infinite number of linear constraints. For lower previsions that are essentially defined on some finite set of gambles on a finite possibility space, we present a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-03-19 Erik Quaeghebeur

We perform the a posteriori error analysis of residual type of a transmission problem with sign changing coefficients. According to [6] if the contrast is large enough, the continuous problem can be transformed into a coercive one. We…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2010-09-17 Serge Nicaise , Juliette Venel

We show that boundary theory for transient Markov chains, as initiated by Doob, can be used to prove de Finetti's classical representation result for exchangeable random sequences. We also include the relevant parts of the theory, with full…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-10-11 Julian Gerstenberg , Rudolf Grübel , Klaas Hagemann

Recently, there has been considerable progress on designing algorithms with provable guarantees -- typically using linear algebraic methods -- for parameter learning in latent variable models. But designing provable algorithms for inference…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-05-30 Sanjeev Arora , Rong Ge , Frederic Koehler , Tengyu Ma , Ankur Moitra

A notion of conditionally identically distributed (c.i.d.) sequences has been studied as a form of stochastic dependence that is weaker than exchangeability, but is equivalent to exchangeability for stationary sequences. In this article we…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-03-07 Sandra Fortini , Sonia Petrone , Polina Sporysheva

We investigate permutation-invariant continuous variable quantum states and their covariance matrices. We provide a complete characterization of the latter with respect to permutation-invariance, exchangeability and representing convex…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2009-11-13 Robert Koenig , Michael M. Wolf

Maximum-entropy distributions are shown to appear in the probability calculus as approximations of a model by exchangeability or a model by sufficiency, the former model being preferable. The implications of this fact are discussed,…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2017-06-27 P. G. L. Porta Mana

Though the notion of exchangeability has been discussed in the causal inference literature under various guises, it has rarely taken its original meaning as a symmetry property of probability distributions. As this property is a standard…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-04 Olli Saarela , David A. Stephens , Erica E. M. Moodie

Let $S$ be a Polish space and $(X_n:n\geq1)$ an exchangeable sequence of $S$-valued random variables. Let $\alpha_n(\cdot)=P(X_{n+1}\in \cdot\mid X_1,\...,X_n)$ be the predictive measure and $\alpha$ a random probability measure on $S$ such…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-07-09 Patrizia Berti , Luca Pratelli , Pietro Rigo

A central limit theorem for arrays of symmetric row-wise exchangeable random variables is presented. The result is valid for finite and infinite extendable and non-extendable sequences. Unlike most reported versions of the central limit…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-06-22 Ilya Soloveychik

We show that the classical de Finetti theorem has a canonical noncommutative counterpart if we strengthen `exchangeability' (i.e., invariance of the joint distribution of the random variables under the action of the permutation group) to…

Operator Algebras · Mathematics 2009-11-13 Claus Köstler , Roland Speicher

We propose an importance sampling method for tractable and efficient estimation of counterfactual expressions in general settings, named Exogenous Matching. By minimizing a common upper bound of counterfactual estimators, we transform the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-14 Yikang Chen , Dehui Du , Lili Tian