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Distribution-free uncertainty estimation for ensemble methods is increasingly desirable due to the widening deployment of multi-modal black-box predictive models. Conformal prediction is one approach that avoids such distributional…
Heterogeneity of economic agents is emphasized in a new trend of macroeconomics. Accordingly the new emerging discipline requires one to replace the production function, one of key ideas in the conventional economics, by an alternative…
Economic agent-based models (ABMs) are becoming more and more data-driven, establishing themselves as increasingly valuable tools for economic research and policymaking. We propose to classify the extent to which an ABM is data-driven based…
There are two widely held characterizations of human semantic category systems: (1) they form convex partitions of conceptual spaces, and (2) they are efficient for communication. While prior work observed that convexity and efficiency…
The problem of combining individual forecasters to produce a forecaster with improved performance is considered. The connections between probability elicitation and classification are used to pose the combining forecaster problem as that of…
Economic complexity algorithms aim to uncover the hidden capabilities that drive economic systems. Here, we present a fundamental reinterpretation of two of these algorithms, the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) and the Economic Fitness and…
We present the first analysis of Fisher markets with buyers that have budget-additive utility functions. Budget-additive utilities are elementary concave functions with numerous applications in online adword markets and revenue optimization…
Complex networks are commonly used to explore human behavior. However, previous studies largely overlooked the geographical and economic factors embedded in collective attention. To address this, we construct attention networks from…
Web emerged as an antidote to the rapidly increasing quantity of accumulated knowledge and become successful because it facilitates massive participation and communication with minimum costs. Today, its enormous impact, scale and dynamism…
Many natural and social science systems are described using probability distributions over elements that are related to each other: for instance, occupations with shared skills or species with similar traits. Standard information theory…
Congestion is a common failure mode of markets, where consumers compete inefficiently on the same subset of goods (e.g., chasing the same small set of properties on a vacation rental platform). The typical economic story is that prices…
Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have led to new summarization strategies, offering an extensive toolkit for extracting important information. However, these approaches are frequently limited by their reliance on isolated…
Why do some economic activities agglomerate more than others? And, why does the agglomeration of some economic activities continue to increase despite recent developments in communication and transportation technologies? In this paper, we…
Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems rely critically on the retriever module to surface relevant context for large language models. Although numerous retrievers have recently been proposed, each built on different ranking principles…
The mainstream media has much leeway in what it chooses to cover and how it covers it. These choices have real-world consequences on what people know and their subsequent behaviors. However, the lack of objective measures to evaluate…
Convex functions have played a major role in the field of Mathematical inequalities. In this paper, we introduce a new concept related to convexity, which proves better estimates when the function is somehow more convex than another. In…
This mathematical essay brings together ideas from Economics, Geobiodynamics and Thermodynamics. Its purpose is to obtain real models of complex evolutionary systems. More specifically, the essay defines Roegenian Economy and links…
In the advent of big data and machine learning, researchers now have a wealth of congressional candidate ideal point estimates at their disposal for theory testing. Weak relationships raise questions about the extent to which they capture a…
Computational models pervade all branches of the exact sciences and have in recent times also started to prove to be of immense utility in some of the traditionally 'soft' sciences like ecology, sociology and politics. This volume is a…
For nearly any challenging scientific problem evaluation of the likelihood is problematic if not impossible. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) allows us to employ the whole Bayesian formalism to problems where we can use simulations…