Related papers: Are solar cycles predictable?
The solar magnetic activity cycle is responsible for periodic episodes of severe space weather, which can perturb satellite orbits, interfere with communications systems, and bring down power grids. Much progress has recently been made in…
Predictions of solar cycle 24 obtained from advection-dominated and diffusion-dominated kinematic dynamo models are different if the Babcock-Leighton mechanism is the only source of the poloidal field. Yeates et al. (2008) argue that the…
At present, Babcock-Leighton flux transport solar dynamo models appear as the most promising model for explaining diverse observational aspects of the sunspot cycle. The success of these flux transport dynamo models is largely dependent…
The prediction of the evolution of individual solar cycles is a developing field, faced with divergence of forecasts even for a few years in the future. Specifically for solar flares, long-term modeling is practically absent even in rough…
Magnetic activity cycles are an important phenomenon in both the Sun and other stars. The shape of the solar cycle is commonly characterised by a fast rise and a slower decline, but not much attention has been paid to the shape of cycles in…
Here we study the prediction of even and odd numbered sunspot cycles separately, thereby taking into account the Hale cyclicity of solar magnetism. We first show that the temporal evolution and shape of all sunspot cycles are extremely well…
The theory of the solar/stellar activity cycles is presented, based on the mean-field concept in magnetohydrodynamics. A new approach to the formulation of the electromotive force and the theory of differential rotation and meridional…
In the previous study (Hiremath 2006a), the solar cycle is modeled as a forced and damped harmonic oscillator and from all the 22 cycles (1755-1996), long-term amplitudes, frequencies, phases and decay factor are obtained. Using these…
The operation of the solar dynamo, with all of its remarkable spatio-temporal ordering, remains an outstanding problem of modern solar physics. A number of mechanisms that might plausibly contribute to its operation have been proposed, but…
The occlusion of the sun by clouds is one of the primary sources of uncertainties in solar power generation, and is a factor that affects the wide-spread use of solar power as a primary energy source. Real-time forecasting of cloud movement…
Context. Solar activity, dominated by the 11-year cyclic evolution, has been observed directly since 1610. Before that, indirect cosmogenic proxy data are used to reconstruct it over millennia. Recently, the precision of radiocarbon…
We explore the importance of meridional circulation variations in modelling the irregularities of the solar cycle by using the flux transport dynamo model. We show that a fluctuating meridional circulation can reproduce some features of the…
Extreme solar activity fluctuations and the occurrence of solar grand minima and maxima episodes, are well established, observed features of the solar cycle. Nevertheless, such extreme activity fluctuations and the dynamics of the solar…
Solar activity is studied using a cluster analysis of the time-fluctuations of sunspot number. In the historic period (1850-1932) the cluster exponent was approximately equal to 0.37 (strong clustering) for the high activity components of…
The energy balance for an atmospheric layer near the soil is evaluated. By integrating it over the whole day period a linear relationship between the global daily solar radiation incident on a horizontal surface and the product of the…
We show how magnetic observations of the Sun can be used in conjunction with an axisymmetric flux-transport solar dynamo model in order to estimate the large-scale meridional circulation throughout the convection zone. Our innovative…
Recent data on superflares on sun-like stars and radiocarbon data on solar activity in the past are both indicative of transient epochs of unusually high magnetic activity. We propose an explanation for the grand activity maxima in the…
We compare two candidate nonlinearities for regulating the solar cycle within the Babcock-Leighton paradigm: tilt quenching (whereby the tilt of active regions is reduced in stronger cycles) and latitude quenching (whereby flux emerges at…
Solar activity seems quite understandable when considered on the scales comparable with a solar cycle, i.e. about 11 years, and on a short time scale of about a year. A solar cycle looks basically (anti)symmetric with respect to the solar…
It can be shown on observational grounds that two basic effects of dynamo theory for solar activity - production of the toroidal field from the poloidal one by differential rotation and reverse conversion of the toroidal field to the…