Related papers: Are solar cycles predictable?
The linear relationship between the maximum amplitudes (R$_{max}$) of sunspot cycles and preceding minima (R$_{min}$) is one of the precursor methods used to predict the amplitude of the upcoming solar cycle. In the recent past this method…
Despite the known general properties of the solar cycles, a reliable forecast of the 11-year sunspot number variations is still a problem. The difficulties are caused by the apparent chaotic behavior of the sunspot numbers from cycle to…
We discuss the difficulties of predicting the solar cycle using mean-field models. Here we argue that these difficulties arise owing to the significant modulation of the solar activity cycle, and that this modulation arises owing to either…
This deep, extended solar minimum and the slow start to Cycle 24 strongly suggest that Cycle 24 will be a small cycle. A wide array of solar cycle prediction techniques have been applied to predicting the amplitude of Cycle 24 with widely…
Using different proxies of solar activity, we have studied the following features of solar cycle. (i) A linear correlation between the amplitude of cycle and its decay rate, (ii) a linear correlation between the amplitude of cycle $n$ and…
We present the assessment of a diffusion-dominated mean field axisymmetric dynamo model in reproducing historical solar activity and forecast for solar cycle 25. Previous studies point to the Sun's polar magnetic field as an important proxy…
The sunspot number varies roughly periodically with time. However the individual cycle durations and the amplitudes are found to vary in an irregular manner. It is observed that the stronger cycles are having shorter rise times and vice…
The minimum - maximum method, belonging to the precursor class of the solar activity forecasting methods, is based on a linear relationship between relative sunspot number in the minimum and maximum epochs of solar cycles. In the present…
Context. Solar activity cycles vary in amplitude and duration. The variations can be at least partly explained by fluctuations in dynamo parameters. Aims. We want to restrict uncertainty in fluctuating dynamo parameters and find out which…
Whether the upcoming cycle 24 of solar activity will be strong or not is being hotly debated. The solar cycle is produced by a complex dynamo mechanism. We model the last few solar cycles by `feeding' observational data of the Sun's polar…
The so-called solar cycle is generally characterized by the quasi-periodic oscillatory evolution of the photospheric spots number. This quasi-periodic pattern has always been an intriguing question. Several physical models were proposed to…
Space weather is a matter of practical importance in our modern society. Predictions of forecoming solar cycles mean amplitude and duration are currently being made based on flux-transport numerical models of the solar dynamo. Interested in…
Forecasting future solar activity has become crucial in our modern world, where intense eruptive phenomena mostly occurring during solar maximum are likely to be strongly damaging to satellites and telecommunications. We present a 4D…
It is proposed that the observed near-surface inflows towards the active regions and sunspot zones provide a nonlinear feedback mechanism that limits the amplitude of a Babcock-Leighton-type solar dynamo and determines the variation of the…
The polar precursor method is widely considered to be the most robust physically motivated method to predict the amplitude of an upcoming solar cycle.It uses indicators of the magnetic field concentrated near the poles around sunspot…
Solar cycles vary in their amplitude and shape. There are several empirical relations between various parameters linking cycle's shape and amplitude, in particular the Waldmeier relations. As solar cycle is believed to be a result of the…
The sunspot solar cycle has been usually explained as the result of a dynamo process operating in the sun. This is a classical problem in Astrophysics that until the present is not fully solved. Here we discuss current problems and…
Prediction of the Sun's magnetic activity is important because of its effect on space environment and climate. However, recent efforts to predict the amplitude of the solar cycle have resulted in diverging forecasts with no consensus.…
Sunspots have been observed for over four centuries and the magnetic nature of sunspot cycles has been known for about a century; however, some of its underlying physics still remain elusive. It is known that the solar magnetic cycle…
The level of solar magnetic activity, as exemplified by the number of sunspots and by energetic events in the corona, varies on a wide range of time scales. Most prominent is the 11-year solar cycle, which is significantly modulated on…