Related papers: Aftershock identification
By analyzing the seismicity in natural time and studying the evolution of the fluctuations of the entropy change of seismicity under time reversal for various scales of different length i (number of events), we can identify the approach of…
Immediately following a disaster event, such as an earthquake, estimates of the damage extent play a key role in informing the coordination of response and recovery efforts. We develop a novel impact estimation tool that leverages a…
Earthquake catalog declustering is the procedure of separating event clusters from background seismicity, which is an important task in statistical seismology, earthquake forecasting, and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Several…
Using the simple ETAS branching model of seismicity, which assumes that each earthquake can trigger other earthquakes, we quantify the role played by the cascade of triggered seismicity in controlling the rate of aftershock decay as well as…
Sequences of aftershocks following Omori's empirical law are observed after most major earthquakes, as well as in laboratory-scale fault-mimicking experiments. Nevertheless, the origin of this memory effect is still unclear. In this letter,…
The advanced machine learning algorithm NESTORE (Next STrOng Related Earthquake) was developed to forecast strong aftershocks in earthquake sequences and has been successfully tested in Italy, western Slovenia, Greece, and California.…
Yes. Interval statistics have been used to conclude that major earthquakes are random events in time and cannot be anticipated or predicted. Machine learning is a powerful new technique that enhances our ability to understand the…
We proceeded from general physical concepts based, on the one hand, on the Umoff-Poynting theorem, and on the other, on the phenomenological theory of earthquakes, and formulated the following question: What are the directions of energy…
Many point process models have been proposed for describing and forecasting earthquake occurrences in seismically active zones such as California, but the problem of how best to compare and evaluate the goodness of fit of such models…
Static and dynamic stress changes in the Earth's crust induced by an earthquake typically trigger other earthquakes. Identifying such aftershocks is an important step in seismic hazard assessment but has remained challenging, especially in…
Hawkes process is one of the most commonly used models for investigating the self-exciting nature of earthquake occurrences. However, seismicity patterns have complicated characteristics due to heterogeneous geology and stresses, for which…
The basic purpose of the paper is to draw the attention of researchers to new possibilities of differentiation of similar signals having different nature. One of examples of such kind of signals is presented by seismograms containing…
With the help of the Diffusion Entropy technique we show the non-Poisson statistics of the distances between consecutive Omori's swarms of earthquakes. We give an analytical proof of the numerical results of an earlier paper…
The concept of a triad of tectonic earthquakes as a natural trinity of foreshocks, main shock and aftershocks is introduced. The basis for classifying the main shocks is the belonging of the main shock to one or another category of triads.…
In an earthquake event, the combination of a strong mainshock and damaging aftershocks is often the cause of severe structural damages and/or high death tolls. The objective of this paper is to provide estimation for the probability of such…
The paper is devoted to comparing two approaches to the study of aftershocks. The methodological foundations of the traditional approach were laid many years ago. A new approach has emerged relatively recently. The two approaches differ…
Forecast models in statistical seismology are commonly evaluated with log-likelihood scores of the full distribution P(n) of earthquake numbers, yet heavy tails and out-of-range observations can bias model ranking. We develop a tail-aware…
In this work the distribution of inter-occurrence times between earthquakes in aftershock sequences is analyzed and a model based on a non-homogeneous Poisson (NHP) process is proposed to quantify the observed scaling. In this model the…
We have analyzed, for the first time, the time cumulant of magnitudes of an aftershock sequence since the mainshock. This comes out to be a remarkable straight line whose slope is characteristic of the fault zone. This will provide an…
Bayesian clustering methods have the widely touted advantage of providing a probabilistic characterization of uncertainty in clustering through the posterior distribution. An amazing variety of priors and likelihoods have been proposed for…