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Standard variational lower bounds used to train latent variable models produce biased estimates of most quantities of interest. We introduce an unbiased estimator of the log marginal likelihood and its gradients for latent variable models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-14 Yucen Luo , Alex Beatson , Mohammad Norouzi , Jun Zhu , David Duvenaud , Ryan P. Adams , Ricky T. Q. Chen

This paper considers a wide family of semiparametric repeated measures regression models, in which the main interest is on estimating population-level quantities such as mean, variance, probabilities etc. Examples of our framework include…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Arnab Maity , Tatiyana V. Apanasovich , Raymond J. Carroll

Free recall of random lists of words is a standard paradigm used to probe human memory. We proposed an associative search process that can be reduced to a deterministic walk on random graphs defined by the structure of memory…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2020-05-01 Michelangelo Naim , Mikhail Katkov , Sandro Romani , Misha Tsodyks

This paper proposes a piecewise autoregression for general integer-valued time series. The conditional mean of the process depends on a parameter which is piecewise constant over time. We derive an inference procedure based on a penalized…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-11-05 Mamadou Lamine Diop , William Kengne

This paper studies the residual empirical process of long- and short-memory time series regression models and establishes its uniform expansion under a general framework. The results are applied to the stochastic regression models and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-11-16 Ngai Hang Chan , Shiqing Ling

I propose a new procedure to estimate the False Alarm Probability, the measure of significance for peaks of periodograms. The key element of the new procedure is the use of generalized extreme-value distributions, the limiting distribution…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2012-12-05 M. Süveges

We present algorithms for nonparametric regression in settings where the data are obtained sequentially. While traditional estimators select bandwidths that depend upon the sample size, for sequential data the effective sample size is…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-07-03 Haijie Gu , John Lafferty

We study semiparametric time series models with innovations following a log-concave distribution. We propose a general maximum likelihood framework which allows us to estimate simultaneously the parameters of the model and the density of…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-30 Yining Chen

This paper considers the problem of estimating the population spectral distribution from a sample covariance matrix in large dimensional situations. We generalize the contour-integral based method in Mestre (2008) and present a local moment…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-02-05 Weiming Li , Jianfeng Yao

In this paper, we propose a new semiparametric regression estimator by using a hybrid technique of a parametric approach and a nonparametric penalized spline method. The overall shape of the true regression function is captured by the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-02-17 Takuma Yoshida , Kanta Naito

This paper provides new uniform rate results for kernel estimators of absolutely regular stationary processes that are uniform in the bandwidth and in infinite-dimensional classes of dependent variables and regressors. Our results are…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-05-21 Juan Carlos Escanciano

This work studies the computational aspects of multivariate convex regression in dimensions $d \ge 5$. Our results include the \emph{first} estimators that are minimax optimal (up to logarithmic factors) with polynomial runtime in the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-30 Gil Kur , Eli Putterman

There are many time series in the literature with high dimension yet limited sample sizes, such as macroeconomic variables, and it is almost impossible to obtain efficient estimation and accurate prediction by using the corresponding…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-30 Yuchang Lin , Qianqian Zhu , Guodong Li

We introduce a broad class of models called semiparametric spatial point process for making inference between spatial point patterns and spatial covariates. These models feature an intensity function with both parametric and nonparametric…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-24 Xindi Lin , Bumjun Park , Christopher Zahasky , Hyunseung Kang

Analyzing time series in the frequency domain enables the development of powerful tools for investigating the second-order characteristics of multivariate processes. Parameters like the spectral density matrix and its inverse, the coherence…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-19 Jonas Krampe , Efstathios Paparoditis

In this paper we introduce randomized pivots for the means of short and long memory linear processes. We show that, under the same conditions, these pivots converge in distribution to the same limit as that of their classical non-randomized…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-05-14 Miklos Csorgo , Masoud M Nasari , Mohamedou Ould-Haye

Inference for statistics of a stationary time series often involve nuisance parameters and sampling distributions that are difficult to estimate. In this paper, we propose the method of orthogonal samples, which can be used to address some…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-11-03 Suhasini Subba Rao

We propose an iterative estimating equations procedure for analysis of longitudinal data. We show that, under very mild conditions, the probability that the procedure converges at an exponential rate tends to one as the sample size…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-12-18 Jiming Jiang , Yihui Luan , You-Gan Wang

Estimating value-at-risk on time series data with possibly heteroscedastic dynamics is a highly challenging task. Typically, we face a small data problem in combination with a high degree of non-linearity, causing difficulties for both…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2022-07-22 Weronika Ormaniec , Marcin Pitera , Sajad Safarveisi , Thorsten Schmidt

For a broad class of nonlinear time series known as Bernoulli shifts, we establish the asymptotic normality of the smoothed periodogram estimator of the long-run variance. This estimator uses only a narrow band of Fourier frequencies around…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-09 Vaidotas Characiejus , Piotr Kokoszka , Xiangdong Meng