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We propose a stochastic process driven by the memory effect with novel distributions which include both exponential and leptokurtic heavy-tailed distributions. A class of the distributions is analytically derived from the continuum limit of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-03-27 Jongwook Kim , Teppei Okumura

We discuss several models in order to shed light on the origin of power-law distributions and power-law correlations in financial time series. From an empirical point of view, the exponents describing the tails of the price increments…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2007-05-23 Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

The upper tail of a claim size distribution of a property line of business is frequently modelled by Pareto distribution. However, the upper tail does not need to be Pareto distributed, extraordinary shapes are possible. Here, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-19 Mathias Raschke

Heavy-tailed impact distributions, intrinsic uncertainty, and the high costs of proposal-based peer review increasingly challenge research funding decisions. Using large-scale bibliometric data, we show that past scientific performance…

Applications · Statistics 2026-04-28 Carlos Oscar S. Sorzano , B. Pueche-Granados

This article describes a methodology for fitting experimental data to the discrete power-law distribution and provides the results of a detailed simulation exercise used to calculate accurate cutoff values used to assess the fit to a…

Computation · Statistics 2013-05-30 Efstratios Rappos , Stephan Robert

The increasing penetration of embedded renewables makes forecasting net-load, consumption less embedded generation, a significant and growing challenge. Here a framework for producing probabilistic forecasts of net-load is proposed with…

Applications · Statistics 2022-10-06 Jethro Browell , Matteo Fasiolo

Power-law probability distributions arise often in the social and natural sciences. Statistics have been developed for estimating the exponent parameter as well as gauging goodness-of-fit to a power law. Yet paradoxically, many famous power…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-21 Qianying Lin , Mitchell Newberry

Sample measures of top centile contributions to the total (concentration) are downward biased, unstable estimators, extremely sensitive to sample size and concave in accounting for large deviations. It makes them particularly unfit in…

Applications · Statistics 2016-09-05 Nassim N Taleb , Raphael Douady

Learning the tail behavior of a distribution is a notoriously difficult problem. By definition, the number of samples from the tail is small, and deep generative models, such as normalizing flows, tend to concentrate on learning the body of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-28 Mike Laszkiewicz , Johannes Lederer , Asja Fischer

Benford's law states that many data sets have a bias towards lower leading digits (about $30\%$ are 1s). There are numerous applications, from designing efficient computers to detecting tax, voter and image fraud. It's important to know…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-01-20 Victoria Cuff , Allison Lewis , Steven J. Miller

A new model ecosystem consisting of many interacting species is introduced. The species are connected through a random matrix with a given connectivity. It is shown that the system is organized close to a boundary of marginal stability in…

adap-org · Physics 2007-05-23 Ricard V. Sole , David Alonso , Alan McKane

In the study of heavy tail data, several models have been introduced. If the interest is in the tail of the distribution, block maxima or excess over thresholds are the typical approaches, wasting relevant information in the bulk of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-10 Luis E. Nieto-Barajas

For a fixed positive integer $\;k,\;$ limit laws of linearly normalized $\;k$-th upper order statistics are well known. In this article, a comprehensive study of tail behaviours of limit laws of normalized $k$-th upper order statistics…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-12-11 Sreenivasan Ravi , Mandagere Chandrashekhar Manohar

We present an analytic method for calculating spectral densities of empirical covariance matrices for correlated data. In this approach the data is represented as a rectangular random matrix whose columns correspond to sampled states of the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2010-01-15 Zdzislaw Burda , Andrzej Goerlich , Bartlomiej Waclaw

We analyze time evolution of statistical distributions of citations to scientific papers published in one year. While these distributions can be fitted by a power-law dependence we find that they are nonstationary and the exponent of the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-09-13 Michael Golosovsky

A decision must often be made between heavy-tailed and Gaussian errors for a regression or a time series model, and the t-distribution is frequently used when it is assumed that the errors are heavy-tailed distributed. The performance of…

Computation · Statistics 2015-05-11 J. Martin van Zyl

The task of estimation of the tails of probability distributions having small samples seems to be still opened and almost unsolvable. The paper tries to make a step in filling this gap. In 2017 Jordanova et al. introduce six new…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-11-14 Pavlina Jordanova , Monika Peteva

We investigate a way of comparing and classifying tails of random variables. Our approach extends the notion of classical indices, such as exponential and moment indices, which are widely used measuring heaviness of tail functions. A…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-10-07 Jaakko Lehtomaa

Gradually Truncated Log-normal distribution - Size distribution of firms Abstract Many natural and economical phenomena are described through power law or log- normal distributions. In these cases, probability decreases very slowly with…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-12-02 Hari M. Gupta , Jose R. Campanha

Real-world classification problems typically exhibit an imbalanced or long-tailed label distribution, wherein many labels are associated with only a few samples. This poses a challenge for generalisation on such labels, and also makes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-13 Aditya Krishna Menon , Sadeep Jayasumana , Ankit Singh Rawat , Himanshu Jain , Andreas Veit , Sanjiv Kumar
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