Related papers: Forgetting of the initial condition for the filter…
In this paper, the forgetting of the initial distribution for a non-ergodic Hidden Markov Models (HMM) is studied. A new set of conditions is proposed to establish the forgetting property of the filter, which significantly extends all the…
The forgetting of the initial distribution for discrete Hidden Markov Models (HMM) is addressed: a new set of conditions is proposed, to establish the forgetting property of the filter, at a polynomial and geometric rate. Both a…
We use Markov categories to generalize the basic theory of Markov chains and hidden Markov models to an abstract setting. This comprises characterizations of hidden Markov models in terms of conditional independences and algorithms for…
We study the forgetting properties of the particle filter when its state - the collection of particles - is regarded as a Markov chain. Under a strong mixing assumption on the particle filter's underlying Feynman-Kac model, we find that the…
We consider a bivariate Markov chain $Z=\{Z_k\}_{k \geq 1}=\{(X_k,Y_k)\}_{k \geq 1}$ taking values on product space ${\cal Z}={\cal X} \times{ \cal Y}$, where ${\cal X}$ is possibly uncountable space and ${\cal Y}=\{1,\ldots, |{\cal Y}|\}$…
State space models have long played an important role in signal processing. The Gaussian case can be treated algorithmically using the famous Kalman filter. Similarly since the 1970s there has been extensive application of Hidden Markov…
State-space models can be used to incorporate subject knowledge on the underlying dynamics of a time series by the introduction of a latent Markov state-process. A user can specify the dynamics of this process together with how the state…
This paper presents new theory and methodology for the Bayesian estimation of overfitted hidden Markov models, with finite state space. The goal is then to achieve posterior emptying of extra states. A prior configuration is constructed…
Exact inference for hidden Markov models requires the evaluation of all distributions of interest - filtering, prediction, smoothing and likelihood - with a finite computational effort. This article provides sufficient conditions for exact…
Consider a filtering process associated to a hidden Markov model with densities for which both the state space and the observation space are complete, separable, metric spaces. If the underlying, hidden Markov chain is strongly ergodic and…
Continuous-time state-space models (SSMs) are flexible tools for analysing irregularly sampled sequential observations that are driven by an underlying state process. Corresponding applications typically involve restrictive assumptions…
In recent years, several ensemble-based filtering methods have been proposed and studied. The main challenge in such procedures is the updating of a prior ensemble to a posterior ensemble at every step of the filtering recursions. In the…
By making use of martingale representations, we derive the asymptotic normality of particle filters in hidden Markov models and a relatively simple formula for their asymptotic variances. Although repeated resamplings result in complicated…
In this paper, we revisit the Kalman filter theory. After giving the intuition on a simplified financial markets example, we revisit the maths underlying it. We then show that Kalman filter can be presented in a very different fashion using…
In this paper, we prove that finite state space non parametric hidden Markov models are identifiable as soon as the transition matrix of the latent Markov chain has full rank and the emission probability distributions are linearly…
We establish conditions for an exponential rate of forgetting of the initial distribution of nonlinear filters in $V$-norm, path-wise along almost all observation sequences. In contrast to previous works, our results allow for unbounded…
We obtain a perfect sampling characterization of weak ergodicity for backward products of finite stochastic matrices, and equivalently, simultaneous tail triviality of the corresponding nonhomogeneous Markov chains. Applying these ideas to…
The use of non parametric hidden Markov models with finite state space is flourishing in practice while few theoretical guarantees are known in this framework. Here, we study asymptotic guarantees for these models in the Bayesian framework.…
We consider inference problems for a class of continuous state collective hidden Markov models, where the data is recorded in aggregate (collective) form generated by a large population of individuals following the same dynamics. We propose…
For linear and Gaussian state space models parametrized by $\theta_0 \in \Theta \subset \mathbb{R}^r, r \geq 1$ corresponding to the vector of parameters of the model, the Kalman filter gives exactly the solution for the optimal filtering…