Related papers: Forward estimation for ergodic time series

For the class of stationary Gaussian long memory processes, we study some properties of the least-squares predictor of X_{n+1} based on (X_n, ..., X_1). The predictor is obtained by projecting X_{n+1} onto the finite past and the…

Making accurate inferences about data is a key task in science and mathematics. Here we study the problem of \emph{retrodiction}, inferring past values of a series, in the context of chaotic dynamical systems. Specifically, we are…

Let $\{(X_i,Y_i)\}$ be a stationary ergodic time series with $(X,Y)$ values in the product space $\R^d\bigotimes \R .$ This study offers what is believed to be the first strongly consistent (with respect to pointwise, least-squares, and…

We consider the problem of finding confidence intervals for the risk of forecasting the future of a stationary, ergodic stochastic process, using a model estimated from the past of the process. We show that a bootstrap procedure provides…

Let the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process $(X_t)_{t\ge0}$ driven by a fractional Brownian motion $B^{H }$, described by $dX_t = -\theta X_t dt + \sigma dB_t^{H }$ be observed at discrete time instants $t_k=kh$, $k=0, 1, 2, \cdots, 2n+2 $. We…

We observe a length-$n$ sample generated by an unknown,stationary ergodic Markov process (\emph{model}) over a finite alphabet $\mathcal{A}$. Given any string $\bf{w}$ of symbols from $\mathcal{A}$ we want estimates of the conditional…

We consider the problem of approximating the stationary distribution of an ergodic Markov chain given a set of sampled transitions. Classical simulation-based approaches assume access to the underlying process so that trajectories of…

This brief pedagogical note re-proves a simple theorem on the convergence, in $L_2$ and in probability, of time averages of non-stationary time series to the mean of expectation values. The basic condition is that the sum of covariances…

Stationary ergodic processes with finite alphabets are estimated by finite memory processes from a sample, an n-length realization of the process, where the memory depth of the estimator process is also estimated from the sample using…

Let $(X_{\underline{\ell}})_{\underline{\ell} \in \mathbb Z^d}$ be a real random field (r.f.) indexed by $\mathbb Z^d$ with common probability distribution function $F$. Let $(z_k)_{k=0}^\infty$ be a sequence in $\mathbb Z^d$. The empirical…

The well established procedure of constructing phenomenological ensemble from a single long time series is investigated. It is determined that a time series generated by a simple Uhlenbeck-Ornstein Langevin equation is mean ergodic. However…

The telegraph process $X(t)$, $t>0$, (Goldstein, 1951) and the geometric telegraph process $S(t) = s_0 \exp\{(\mu -\frac12\sigma^2)t + \sigma X(t)\}$ with $\mu$ a known constant and $\sigma>0$ a parameter are supposed to be observed at…

Automatic forecasting is the task of receiving a time series and returning a forecast for the next time steps without any human intervention. Gaussian Processes (GPs) are a powerful tool for modeling time series, but so far there are no…

A novel first-order autoregressive moving average model for analyzing discrete-time series observed at irregularly spaced times is introduced. Under Gaussianity, it is established that the model is strictly stationary and ergodic. In the…

Four estimators of the directed information rate between a pair of jointly stationary ergodic finite-alphabet processes are proposed, based on universal probability assignments. The first one is a Shannon--McMillan--Breiman type estimator,…

Let $M$ be a semifinite von Neumann algebra and $T$ a positive contraction on both $L^1(M)$ and $L^\infty(M)$. We consider ergodic averages along a random sparse subsequence determined by independent Bernoulli variables $(X_n)_{n\geq 1}$…

The Bayesian framework is ideally suited for induction problems. The probability of observing $x_t$ at time $t$, given past observations $x_1...x_{t-1}$ can be computed with Bayes' rule if the true distribution $\mu$ of the sequences…

We introduce a Gaussian process-based model for handling of non-stationarity. The warping is achieved non-parametrically, through imposing a prior on the relative change of distance between subsequent observation inputs. The model allows…

Let $a_n$ be the random increasing sequence of natural numbers which takes each value independently with decreasing probability of order $n^{-\alpha}$, $0 < \alpha < 1/2$. We prove that, almost surely, for every measure-preserving system…

We consider the a posteriori error analysis of approximations of parabolic problems based on arbitrarily high-order conforming Galerkin spatial discretizations and arbitrarily high-order discontinuous Galerkin temporal discretizations.…