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We construct a pathwise calculus for functionals of integer-valued measures and use it to derive an martingale representation formula with respect to a large class of integer-valued random measures. Using these results, we extend the…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-02-28 Pierre M. Blacque-Florentin , Rama Cont

A novel approach is proposed to establish a sharp upper bound on the expected supremum of a separable martingale random field, serving as an alternative to classical universal chaining-based methods. The proposed approach begins by deriving…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-07 Yoichi Nishiyama

Numerous studies grounded on Hawkes processes have been carried out in many fields including finance, biology and social network. Hawkes processes form a class of selfexciting simple point processes. In this article, we consider a general…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-22 Bartholomé Vieille , Rachid Senoussi , Samuel Soubeyrand

We study the existence, strong consistency and asymptotic normality of estimators obtained from estimating functions, that are p-dimensional martingale transforms. The problem is motivated by the analysis of evolutionary clustered data,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-12-01 Laura Dumitrescu , Ioana Schiopu-Kratina

In this paper, we first investigate the estimation of the empirical joint Laplace transform of volatilities of two semi-martingales within a fixed time interval [0, T] by using overlapped increments of high-frequency data. The proposed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-05 XinWei Feng , Yu Jiang , Zhi Liu , Zhe Meng

Many models require integrals of high-dimensional functions: for instance, to obtain marginal likelihoods. Such integrals may be intractable, or too expensive to compute numerically. Instead, we can use the Laplace approximation (LA). The…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-05 Shaun McDonald , David Campbell

We propose and study properties of maximum likelihood estimators in the class of conditional transformation models. Based on a suitable explicit parameterisation of the unconditional or conditional transformation function, we establish a…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-22 Torsten Hothorn , Lisa Möst , Peter Bühlmann

An analogue of the Fourier transform will be introduced for all square integrable continuous martingale processes whose quadratic variation is deterministic. Using this transform we will formulate and prove a stochastic Heisenberg…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-02-18 C. Mueller , A. Stan

In this paper we estimate the rest of the approximation of a stationary process by a martingale in terms of the projections of partial sums. Then, based on this estimate, we obtain almost sure approximation of partial sums by a martingale…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-05-05 Florence Merlevède , Costel Peligrad , Magda Peligrad

In this article, we present a novel inference framework for estimating the parameters of Continuous-State Branching Processes (CSBPs). We do so by leveraging their subordinator representation. Our method reformulates the estimation problem…

As an alternative to the well-known methods of "chaining" and "bracketing" that have been developed in the study of random fields, a new method, which is based on a {\em stochastic maximal inequality} derived by using the formula for…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-08-16 Yoichi Nishiyama

Parametric estimation for diffusion processes is considered for high frequency observations over a fixed time interval. The processes solve stochastic differential equations with an unknown parameter in the diffusion coefficient. We find…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-04-03 Nina Munkholt Jakobsen , Michael Sørensen

We present a fully nonparametric method to estimate the value function, via simulation, in the context of expected infinite-horizon discounted rewards for Markov chains. Estimating such value functions plays an important role in approximate…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-12-30 Mohammad Mousavi , Peter W. Glynn

In this paper, we introduce a novel semi-analytical method for solving a broad class of initial value problems involving differential, integro-differential, and delay equations, including those with fractional and variable-order…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-10-02 Mohamed Mostafa

Marginal-likelihood based model-selection, even though promising, is rarely used in deep learning due to estimation difficulties. Instead, most approaches rely on validation data, which may not be readily available. In this work, we present…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-16 Alexander Immer , Matthias Bauer , Vincent Fortuin , Gunnar Rätsch , Mohammad Emtiyaz Khan

We use the abstract method of (local) martingale problems in order to give criteria for convergence of stochastic processes. Extending previous notions, the formulation we use is neither restricted to Markov processes (or semimartingales),…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-08-27 David Criens , Peter Pfaffelhuber , Thorsten Schmidt

We introduce a point process regression model that is applicable to price models and limit order book models. Hawkes type autoregression in the intensity process is generalized to a stochastic regression to covariate processes. We establish…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-12-08 Teppei Ogihara , Nakahiro Yoshida

This paper deals with nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation for Gaussian locally stationary processes. Our nonparametric MLE is constructed by minimizing a frequency domain likelihood over a class of functions. The asymptotic behavior…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-11-10 Rainer Dahlhaus , Wolfgang Polonik

We propose threshold diffusion processes as unique solutions to stochastic differential equations with step-function coefficients, and obtain explicit expressions for the conditional Laplace transform of the hitting times and the potential…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-26 Lina Ji , Chuyang Li , Xiaowen Zhou

We propose a framework for computing, optimizing and integrating with respect to a smooth marginal likelihood in statistical models that involve high-dimensional parameters/latent variables and continuous low-dimensional hyperparameters.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-10 Omiros Papaspiliopoulos , Timothée Stumpf-Fétizon , Jonathan Weare