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Methods that bypass analytical evaluations of the likelihood function have become an indispensable tool for statistical inference in many fields of science. These so-called likelihood-free methods rely on accepting and rejecting simulations…

Bayesian inference for nonlinear diffusions, observed at discrete times, is a challenging task that has prompted the development of a number of algorithms, mainly within the computational statistics community. We propose a new direction,…

Computation · Statistics 2022-01-11 Matthew M. Graham , Alexandre H. Thiery , Alexandros Beskos

We propose a novel Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to sample uniformly from the space of correlation matrices. Existing methods in the literature are based on elaborated representations of a correlation matrix, or on complex parametrizations…

Computation · Statistics 2019-10-18 Irene Córdoba , Gherardo Varando , Concha Bielza , Pedro Larrañaga

Propagation of charged cosmic-rays in the Galaxy depends on the transport parameters, whose number can be large depending on the propagation model under scrutiny. A standard approach for determining these parameters is a manual scan,…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-05-13 A. Putze , L. Derome , D. Maurin , L. Perotto , R. Taillet

Bayesian inference with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is challenging when the likelihood function is irregular and expensive to compute. We explore several sampling algorithms that make use of subset evaluations to reduce computational…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-16 Conor Rosato , Harvinder Lehal , Simon Maskell , Lee Devlin , Malcolm Strens

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are a powerful tool for computation with complex probability distributions. However the performance of such methods is critically dependant on properly tuned parameters, most of which are difficult if…

Computation · Statistics 2021-10-27 James A. Brofos , Marylou Gabrié , Marcus A. Brubaker , Roy R. Lederman

Along with the recent advances in scalable Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, sampling techniques that are based on Langevin diffusions have started receiving increasing attention. These so called Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC) methods are based…

Computation · Statistics 2017-06-14 Umut Şimşekli

Two popular classes of methods for approximate inference are Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and variational inference. MCMC tends to be accurate if run for a long enough time, while variational inference tends to give better approximations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-06-21 Justin Domke

MCMC methods (Monte Carlo Markov Chain) are a class of methods used to perform simulations per a probability distribution $P$. These methods are often used when we have difficulties to directly sample per a given probability distribution…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-01-21 Papa Ngom , Badiassiatta Don Bosco Diatta

This paper proposes methods for likelihood-based inference in multivariate linear regressions when the correlation matrix of the responses is separable; that is, it has a Kronecker product structure, but the variances are unrestricted. The…

Computation · Statistics 2026-04-16 Karl Oskar Ekvall

In this work, we consider the problem of estimating the probability distribution, the quantile or the conditional expectation above the quantile, the so called conditional-value-at-risk, of output quantities of complex random differential…

Computation · Statistics 2023-05-23 Quentin Ayoul-Guilmard , Sundar Ganesh , Sebastian Krumscheid , Fabio Nobile

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a popular and successful general-purpose tool for Bayesian inference. However, MCMC cannot be practically applied to large data sets because of the prohibitive cost of evaluating every likelihood term at…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-03-25 Dougal Maclaurin , Ryan P. Adams

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are employed to sample from a given distribution of interest, whenever either the distribution does not exist in closed form, or, if it does, no efficient method to simulate an independent sample from…

Computation · Statistics 2008-07-22 Ioana A. Cosma , Masoud Asgharian

This paper introduces a Bayesian framework that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, dimensionality reduction, and neural density estimation to efficiently handle inverse problems that (i) must be solved multiple times, and…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Giacomo Bottacini , Matteo Torzoni , Andrea Manzoni

In this paper a method based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is proposed to compute the probability of a rare event. The conditional distribution of the underlying process given that the rare event occurs has the probability…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-11-12 Thorbjörn Gudmundsson , Henrik Hult

In this paper we propose a Monte Carlo maximum likelihood estimation strategy for discretely observed Wright-Fisher diffusions. Our approach provides an unbiased estimator of the likelihood function and is based on exact simulation…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-06-11 Celia García-Pareja , Fabio Nobile

Diffusions are a fundamental class of models in many fields, including finance, engineering, and biology. Simulating diffusions is challenging as their sample paths are infinite-dimensional and their transition functions are typically…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-11 Paul A. Jenkins , Murray Pollock , Gareth O. Roberts , Michael Sørensen

This paper presents a novel theoretical Monte Carlo Markov chain procedure in the framework of graphs. It specifically deals with the construction of a Markov chain whose empirical distribution converges to a given reference one. The Markov…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-07-02 Roy Cerqueti , Emilio De Santis

Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods are used to carry out inference in non-linear and non-Gaussian state space models, where the posterior density of the states is approximated using particles. Current approaches usually perform…

Computation · Statistics 2019-09-30 Eduardo F. Mendes , Christopher K. Carter , David Gunawan , Robert Kohn

This review paper, written for the second edition of the Handbook of Markov Chain Monte Carlo, provides an introduction to the study of convergence analysis for Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), aimed at researchers new to the field. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-09-24 Qian Qin