Related papers: Prediction for discrete time series

We study a discrete time queueing system where deterministic arrivals have i.i.d. exponential delays $\xi_{i}$. The standard deviation $\sigma$ of the delay is finite, but its value is much larger than the deterministic unit service time.…

We establish strong invariance principles for sums of stationary and ergodic processes with nearly optimal bounds. Applications to linear and some nonlinear processes are discussed. Strong laws of large numbers and laws of the iterated…

We consider in this paper a stochastic process that mixes in time, according to a nonobserved stationary Markov selection process, two separate sources of randomness: i) a stationary process which distribution is accessible (gold standard);…

We construct a general procedure for the Quasi Likelihood Analysis applied to a multivariate point process on the real half line in an ergodic framework. More precisely, we assume that the stochastic intensity of the underlying model…

The goal of this paper is to develop a general method to establish conditional ergodicity of infinite-dimensional Markov chains. Given a Markov chain in a product space, we aim to understand the ergodic properties of its conditional…

We consider a stationary Markovian evolution with values on a disjointly partitioned set space $I\sqcup {\cal E}$. The evolution is visible (in the sense of knowing the transition probabilities) on the states in $I$ but not for the states…

Even simply-defined, finite-state generators produce stochastic processes that require tracking an uncountable infinity of probabilistic features for optimal prediction. For processes generated by hidden Markov chains the consequences are…

We introduce the concept of an imprecise Markov semigroup \(\mathbf Q\). It is a tool that allows us to represent ambiguity around both the transition probabilities and the invariant measure of a continuous-time Markov process via a…

We study the estimation of the value function for continuous-time Markov diffusion processes using a single, discretely observed ergodic trajectory. Our work provides non-asymptotic statistical guarantees for the least-squares…

We study irreducible time-homogenous Markov chains with finite state space in discrete time. We obtain results on the sensitivity of the stationary distribution and other statistical quantities with respect to perturbations of the…

Consider longitudinal networks whose edges turn on and off according to a discrete-time Markov chain with exponential-family transition probabilities. We characterize when their joint distributions are also exponential families with the…

We study discrete time Markov processes with periodic or open boundary conditions and with inhomogeneous rates in the bulk. The Markov matrices are given by the inhomogeneous transfer matrices introduced previously to prove the…

We are interested in the quasi-stationarity of the time-inhomogeneous Markov process X t = B t (t + 1) $\kappa$ where (B t) t$\ge$0 is a one-dimensional Brownian motion and $\kappa$ $\in$ (0, $\infty$). We first show that the law of X t…

We propose parametric copulas that capture serial dependence in stationary heteroskedastic time series. We develop our copula for first order Markov series, and extend it to higher orders and multivariate series. We derive the copula of a…

The article contains an overview over locally stationary processes. At the beginning time varying autoregressive processes are discussed in detail - both as as a deep example and an important class of locally stationary processes. In the…

The first aim of the present note is to quantify the speed of convergence of a conditioned process toward its Q-process under suitable assumptions on the quasi-stationary distribution of the process. Conversely, we prove that, if a…

The paper is devoted to studies of perturbed Markov chains commonly used for description of information networks. In such models, the matrix of transition probabilities for the corresponding Markov chain is usually regularised by adding a…

We consider a simple but important class of metastable discrete time Markov chains, which we call perturbed Markov chains. Basically, we assume that the transition matrices depend on a parameter $\varepsilon$, and converge as $\varepsilon$.…

A novel Markovian network evolution model is introduced and analysed by means of information theory. It will be proved that the model, called Network Evolution Chain, is a stationary and ergodic stochastic process. Therefore, the Asymptotic…

A time-varying empirical spectral process indexed by classes of functions is defined for locally stationary time series. We derive weak convergence in a function space, and prove a maximal exponential inequality and a…