Related papers: Prediction for discrete time series

The purpose of this paper is to establish the almost sure weak ergodic convergence of a sequence of iterates $(x_n)$ given by $x_{n+1} = (I+\lambda_n A(\xi_{n+1},\,.\,))^{-1}(x_n)$ where $(A(s,\,.\,):s\in E)$ is a collection of maximal…

Using elementary methods, we prove that for a countable Markov chain $P$ of ergodic degree $d > 0$ the rate of convergence towards the stationary distribution is subgeometric of order $n^{-d}$, provided the initial distribution satisfies…

Let $(X_n \colon n\in\Z)$ be a two-sided recurrent Markov chain with fixed initial state $X_0$ and let $\nu$ be a probability measure on its state space. We give a necessary and sufficient criterion for the existence of a non-randomized…

Assuming that a threshold Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is observed at discrete time instants, we propose generalized moment estimators to estimate the parameters. Our theoretical basis is the celebrated ergodic theorem. To use this theorem we…

Kolmogorov complexity and algorithmic probability are defined only up to an additive resp. multiplicative constant, since their actual values depend on the choice of the universal reference computer. In this paper, we analyze a natural…

The following learning problem arises naturally in various applications: Given a finite sample from a categorical or count time series, can we learn a function of the sample that (nearly) maximizes the probability of correctly guessing the…

In this paper, we give a AR$(1)$ type of characterization covering all multivariate strictly stationary processes indexed by the set of integers. Consequently, we derive continuous time algebraic Riccati equations for the parameter matrix…

In this paper, we derive asymptotic results for L^1-Wasserstein distance between the distribution function and the corresponding empirical distribution function of a stationary sequence. Next, we give some applications to dynamical systems…

Given a discrete-valued sample $X_1,...,X_n$ we wish to decide whether it was generated by a distribution belonging to a family $H_0$, or it was generated by a distribution belonging to a family $H_1$. In this work we assume that all…

In this paper we consider the convergence of the conditional entropy to the entropy rate for Markov chains. Convergence of certain statistics of long range dependent processes, such as the sample mean, is slow. It has been shown in Carpio…

We consider a one-dimensional stationary time series of fixed duration $T$. We investigate the time $t_{\rm m}$ at which the process reaches the global maximum within the time interval $[0,T]$. By using a path-decomposition technique, we…

We study some regularity properties in locally stationary Markov models which are fundamental for controlling the bias of nonparametric kernel estimators. In particular, we provide an alternative to the standard notion of derivative process…

We study a class of stationary Markov processes with marginal distributions identifiable by moments such that every conditional moment of degree say $m$ is a polynomial of degree at most $m\;\text{.}\;$ We show that then under some…

For discrete-state stochastic systems obeying Markovian dynamics, we establish the counterpart of the conditional reversibility theorem obtained by Gallavotti for deterministic systems [Ann. de l'Institut Henri Poincar\'e (A) 70, 429…

We prove explicit error bounds for Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to compute expectations of functions with unbounded stationary variance. We assume that there is a $p\in(1,2)$ so that the functions have finite $L_p$-norm. For…

We consider a probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA) of evaporation-deposition on the one-dimensional lattice having $n$ sites with periodic boundary conditions, in which each site, during each epoch, can be in one of two states: $0$ and…

This paper studies the exponential stability of random matrix products driven by a general (possibly unbounded) state space Markov chain. It is a cornerstone in the analysis of stochastic algorithms in machine learning (e.g. for parameter…

When the initial and transition probabilities of a finite Markov chain in discrete time are not well known, we should perform a sensitivity analysis. This is done by considering as basic uncertainty models the so-called credal sets that…

We derive a necessary and sufficient condition for stochastic processes to have almost periodic finite dimensional distributions; in particular, we obtain characterizations for infinitely divisible processes to be almost periodic in terms…

A set $P\subset \mathbb N$ is called predictive if for any zero entropy finite-valued stationary process $(X_i)_{i\in \mathbb Z}$, $X_0$ is measurable with respect to $(X_i)_{i\in P}$. We know that $\mathbb N$ is a predictive set. In this…