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We design and implement a novel algorithm for computing a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) estimator of the cumulative distribution function of a quantity of interest in problems with random input parameters or initial conditions. Our approach…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-08-26 Søren Taverniers , Daniel M. Tartakovsky

Log-linear models are arguably the most successful class of graphical models for large-scale applications because of their simplicity and tractability. Learning and inference with these models require calculating the partition function,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-03-16 Ryan Spring , Anshumali Shrivastava

Estimating the probability that a sum of random variables (RVs) exceeds a given threshold is a well-known challenging problem. Closed-form expression of the sum distribution is usually intractable and presents an open problem. A crude Monte…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2014-09-23 Nadhir Ben Rached , Fatma Benkhelifa , Abla Kammoun , Mohamed-Slim Alouini , Raul Tempone

The importance sampling (IS) method lies at the core of many Monte Carlo-based techniques. IS allows the approximation of a target probability distribution by drawing samples from a proposal (or importance) distribution, different from the…

Applications · Statistics 2017-04-21 Manuel A. Vázquez , Joaquín Míguez

Monte Carlo integration with variance reduction by means of control variates can be implemented by the ordinary least squares estimator for the intercept in a multiple linear regression model with the integrand as response and the control…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-04-02 Rémi Leluc , François Portier , Johan Segers

Importance sampling (IS) is a powerful Monte Carlo methodology for the approximation of intractable integrals, very often involving a target probability density function. The performance of IS heavily depends on the appropriate selection of…

Computation · Statistics 2023-06-22 Víctor Elvira , Emilie Chouzenoux , Ömer Deniz Akyildiz , Luca Martino

Importance sampling is a widely used technique to reduce the variance of a Monte Carlo estimator by an appropriate change of measure. In this work, we study importance sam- pling in the framework of diffusion process and consider the change…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-03-28 Carsten Hartmann , Christof Schütte , Marcus Weber , Wei Zhang

Linear Least Squares is a very well known technique for parameter estimation, which is used even when sub-optimal, because of its very low computational requirements and the fact that exact knowledge of the noise statistics is not required.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-16 Michael Krikheli , Amir Leshem

Evaluating expectations on an Ising model (or Boltzmann machine) is essential for various applications, including statistical machine learning. However, in general, the evaluation is computationally difficult because it involves intractable…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-05-19 Muneki Yasuda , Kaiji Sekimoto

Variational inference consists in finding the best approximation of a target distribution within a certain family, where `best' means (typically) smallest Kullback-Leiber divergence. We show that, when the approximation family is…

Computation · Statistics 2025-09-24 Yvann Le Fay , Nicolas Chopin , Simon Barthelmé

The quasi-Monte Carlo method is widely used in computational finance, whose efficiency strongly depends on the smoothness and effective dimension of the integrand. In this work, we investigate the combination of importance sampling and the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-03-05 Jiaxin Yu , Xiaoqun Wang

We propose bandit importance sampling (BIS), a powerful importance sampling framework tailored for settings in which evaluating the target density is computationally expensive. BIS facilitates accurate sampling while minimizing the required…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-17 Takuo Matsubara , Andrew Duncan , Simon Cotter , Konstantinos Zygalakis

In general, the pricing of variable annuities with guarantees can be done by solving the corresponding optimal stochastic control problem if the contract withdrawal strategy is assumed to be optimal. This is typically solved as a dynamic…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2026-05-27 Nicolas Langrené , Xiaolin Luo , Pavel V. Shevchenko , Ruiyi Zhang

Bayesian methods and their implementations by means of sophisticated Monte Carlo techniques have become very popular in signal processing over the last years. Importance Sampling (IS) is a well-known Monte Carlo technique that approximates…

Computation · Statistics 2022-01-21 L. Martino , V. Elvira , G. Camps-Valls

Multiple importance sampling (MIS) is employed to reduce variance of estimators, but when sampling and weighting are not suitable to the integrand, the estimators would have extra variance. Therefore, robust light transport simulation…

Graphics · Computer Science 2018-10-29 Qi Liu , Yiheng Zhang , Lizhuang Ma

In modern data analysis, random sampling is an efficient and widely-used strategy to overcome the computational difficulties brought by large sample size. In previous studies, researchers conducted random sampling which is according to the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-05 Rong Zhu

Importance sampling is a well developed method in statistics. Given a random variable $X$, the problem of estimating its expected value $\mu$ is addressed. The standard approach is to use the sample mean as an estimator $\bar x$. In…

Applications · Statistics 2014-05-09 Georg Hofmann

Importance Sampling (IS), an effective variance reduction strategy in Monte Carlo (MC) simulation, is frequently utilized for Bayesian inference and other statistical challenges. Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) replaces the random samples in MC…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-03-19 Zhijian He , Hejin Wang , Xiaoqun Wang

For massive data, the family of subsampling algorithms is popular to downsize the data volume and reduce computational burden. Existing studies focus on approximating the ordinary least squares estimate in linear regression, where…

Computation · Statistics 2019-06-27 HaiYing Wang , Rong Zhu , Ping Ma

Weighted least squares polynomial approximation uses random samples to determine projections of functions onto spaces of polynomials. It has been shown that, using an optimal distribution of sample locations, the number of samples required…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-10-10 Abdul-Lateef Haji-Ali , Fabio Nobile , Raúl Tempone , Sören Wolfers