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This paper explores a geometric approach to constructing quasi-sure solutions for $G$-stochastic differential equations (G-SDEs) under model uncertainty. We propose a pathwise patching methodology that systematically combines…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-11-10 Guangqian Zhao

We consider the problem of estimating the mean $f$ of a Gaussian vector $Y$ with independent components of common unknown variance $\sigma^{2}$. Our estimation procedure is based on estimator selection. More precisely, we start with an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-06-24 Yannick Baraud , Christophe Giraud , Sylvie Huet

Confidence ellipsoids for linear regression coefficients are constructed by observations from a mixture with varying concentrations. Two approaches are discussed. The first one is the nonparametric approach based on the weighted least…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-12 Vitalii Miroshnichenko , Rostyslav Maiboroda

Post-data statistical inference concerns making probability statements about model parameters conditional on observed data. When a priori knowledge about parameters is available, post-data inference can be conveniently made from Bayesian…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-05 Yang Liu , Jan Hannig , Alexander C Murph

The problem of identifying statistically significant inferences about the structure of the graphical model is considered, along with the related task of constructing a confidence set for a graphical model. It has been proven that the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-17 P. A. Koldanov , A. P. Koldanov

We provide a geometric interpretation to Bayesian inference that allows us to introduce a natural measure of the level of agreement between priors, likelihoods, and posteriors. The starting point for the construction of our geometry is the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-24 Miguel de Carvalho , Garritt L. Page , Bradley J. Barney

Image analysis frequently deals with shape estimation and image reconstruction. The ob jects of interest in these problems may be thought of as random sets, and one is interested in finding a representative, or expected, set. We consider a…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-06-09 Hanna K. Jankowski , Larissa I. Stanberry

In this paper, we consider a probabilistic setting where the probability measures are considered to be random objects. We propose a procedure of construction non-asymptotic confidence sets for empirical barycenters in 2-Wasserstein space…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-03-13 Johannes Ebert , Vladimir Spokoiny , Alexandra Suvorikova

Certifiable, adaptive uncertainty estimates for unknown quantities are an essential ingredient of sequential decision-making algorithms. Standard approaches rely on problem-dependent concentration results and are limited to a specific…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-09 Nicolas Emmenegger , Mojmír Mutný , Andreas Krause

We derive non-asymptotic confidence regions for the mean of a random vector whose coordinates have an unknown dependence structure. The random vector is supposed to be either Gaussian or to have a symmetric bounded distribution, and we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-02-07 Sylvain Arlot , Gilles Blanchard , Etienne Roquain

The multivariate Fay-Herriot model is quite effective in combining information through correlations among small area survey estimates of related variables or historical survey estimates of the same variable or both. Though the literature on…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-29 Takumi Saegusa , Shonosuke Sugasawa , Partha Lahiri

We develop a general assumption-lean framework for constructing uniformly valid confidence sets for functionals defined by moment equalities, referred to as $Z$-functionals. Our approach combines self-normalized statistics with a test…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-11 Woonyoung Chang , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

We develop a new method for generating prediction sets that combines the flexibility of conformal methods with an estimate of the conditional distribution $P_{Y \mid X}$. Existing methods, such as conformalized quantile regression and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-10 Vincent Plassier , Alexander Fishkov , Mohsen Guizani , Maxim Panov , Eric Moulines

The geometric formulation of fiducial probability employed in this paper is an improvement over the usual pivotal quantity formulation. For a single parameter and single observation, the new formulation is based on the geometric properties…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-09-03 Paul Gunther

This manuscript studies a general approach to construct confidence sets for the solution of stochastic optimization, rendering empirical risk minimization as special cases. Statistical inference for stochastic optimization poses significant…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-22 Kenta Takatsu , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

We use Stein's method to obtain bounds on the rate of convergence for a class of statistics in geometric probability obtained as a sum of contributions from Poisson points which are exponentially stabilizing, i.e. locally determined in a…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Mathew D. Penrose , J. E. Yukich

Constructing valid confidence sets is a crucial task in statistical inference, yet traditional methods often face challenges when dealing with complex models or limited observed sample sizes. These challenges are frequently encountered in…

This paper examines the construction of confidence sets for parameters defined as linear functionals of a function of W and X whose conditional mean given Z and X equals the conditional mean of another variable Y given Z and X. Many…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-08 Ezequiel Smucler , James M. Robins , Andrea Rotnitzky

A geometric analysis of the Shake and Rattle methods for constrained Hamiltonian problems is carried out. The study reveals the underlying differential geometric foundation of the two methods, and the exact relation between them. In…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2014-03-21 Robert I. McLachlan , Klas Modin , Olivier Verdier , Matt Wilkins

In econometrics, many parameters of interest can be written as ratios of expectations. The main approach to construct confidence intervals for such parameters is the delta method. However, this asymptotic procedure yields intervals that may…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-04-16 Alexis Derumigny , Lucas Girard , Yannick Guyonvarch