Related papers: Ergodicity and hydrodynamic limits for an epidemic…
In the present work the spread of epidemic is studied over complex networks which are characterized by power law degree distribution of links and heterogeneous rate of disease transmission. The random allocation of epidemic transmission…
In this paper, we propose a mathematical framework that governs the evolution of epidemic dynamics, encompassing both intra-population dynamics and inter-population mobility within a metapopulation network. By linearizing this dynamical…
We present a strategy capable of describing basic features of the dynamics of crowds. The behaviour of the crowd is considered from a twofold perspective. We examine both the large scale behaviour of the crowd, and phenomena happening at…
We present a thorough inspection of the dynamical behavior of epidemic phenomena in populations with complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns. We show that the growth of the epidemic prevalence is virtually instantaneous in all…
We propose a tractable epidemic model that includes containment measures. In the absence of containment measures, the epidemics spread exponentially fast whenever the infectivity rate is positive, $\lambda>0$. The containment measures are…
Understanding and predicting outbreaks of contagious diseases are crucial to the development of society and public health, especially for underdeveloped countries. However, challenging problems are encountered because of complex epidemic…
Major advances in public health have resulted from disease prevention. However, prevention of a new infectious disease by vaccination or pharmaceuticals is made difficult by the slow process of vaccine and drug development. We propose an…
Epidemic spreading can be suppressed by the introduction of containment measures such as social distancing and lock downs. Yet, when such measures are relaxed, new epidemic waves and infection cycles may occur. Here we explore this issue in…
We present a unified mathematical approach to epidemiological models with parametric heterogeneity, i.e., to the models that describe individuals in the population as having specific parameter (trait) values that vary from one individuals…
A stochastic epidemic model is defined in which each individual belongs to a household, a secondary grouping (typically school or workplace) and also the community as a whole. Moreover, infectious contacts take place in these three settings…
Epidemic models are invaluable tools to understand and implement strategies to control the spread of infectious diseases, as well as to inform public health policies and resource allocation. However, current modeling approaches have…
Network epidemiology often assumes that the relationships defining the social network of a population are static. The dynamics of relationships is only taken indirectly into account, by assuming that the relevant information to study…
We show that the recently introduced logarithmic metrics used to predict disease arrival times on complex networks are approximations of more general network-based measures derived from random walks theory. Using the daily air-traffic…
Stochastic epidemic models provide an interpretable probabilistic description of the spread of a disease through a population. Yet, fitting these models to partially observed data is a notoriously difficult task due to intractability of the…
Motivated by the increasing number of COVID-19 cases that have been observed in many countries after the vaccination and relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions, we propose a mathematical model on time-varying networks for the spread…
The exploration of epidemic dynamics on dynamically evolving ("adaptive") networks poses nontrivial challenges to the modeler, such as the determination of a small number of informative statistics of the detailed network state (that is, a…
In this paper we study the diffusion of an SIS-type epidemics on a network under the presence of a random environment, that enters in the definition of the infection rates of the nodes. Accordingly, we model the infection rates in the form…
Many real networks are not isolated from each other but form networks of networks, often interrelated in non trivial ways. Here, we analyze an epidemic spreading process taking place on top of two interconnected complex networks. We develop…
In this work, we use a new approach to study the spread of an infectious disease. Indeed, we study a SIR epidemic model with variable infectivity, where the individuals are distributed over a compact subset $D$ of $\R^d$. We define…
The paper presents an algorithm for syndromic surveillance of an epidemic outbreak formulated in the context of stochastic nonlinear filtering. The dynamics of the epidemic is modeled using a generalized compartmental epidemiological model…