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We propose a formal language for describing and explaining statistical causality. Concretely, we define Statistical Causality Language (StaCL) for expressing causal effects and specifying the requirements for causal inference. StaCL…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-10-04 Yusuke Kawamoto , Tetsuya Sato , Kohei Suenaga

Causal inference from observational data is the goal of many data analyses in the health and social sciences. However, academic statistics has often frowned upon data analyses with a causal objective. The introduction of the term "data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-04-11 Miguel A. Hernán , John Hsu , Brian Healy

The notion of causal effect is fundamental across many scientific disciplines. Traditionally, quantitative researchers have studied causal effects at the level of variables; for example, how a certain drug dose (W) causally affects a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-07 Junhyung Park , Yuqing Zhou

The stochastic system approach to causality is applied to situations where the risk of death is not negligible. This approach grounds causality on physical laws, distinguishes system and observation and represents the system by multivariate…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-07 Daniel Commenges

Despite the excelling performance of machine learning models, understanding their decisions remains a long-standing goal. Although commonly used attribution methods from explainable AI attempt to address this issue, they typically rely on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-20 Juan Miguel Lopez Alcaraz , Nils Strodthoff

While statisticians and quantitative social scientists typically study the "effects of causes" (EoC), Lawyers and the Courts are more concerned with understanding the "causes of effects" (CoE). EoC can be addressed using experimental design…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-04-28 Philip Dawid , Monica Musio , Stephen E. Fienberg

When assessing causal effects, determining the target population to which the results are intended to generalize is a critical decision. Randomized and observational studies each have strengths and limitations for estimating causal effects…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-21 Irina Degtiar , Sherri Rose

Inferring causal effects of treatments is a central goal in many disciplines. The potential outcomes framework is a main statistical approach to causal inference, in which a causal effect is defined as a comparison of the potential outcomes…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-04 Peng Ding , Fan Li

Applied researchers in biomedicine and related fields are often interested in estimating the causal effect of a treatment or intervention. Although randomized clinical trials are considered the gold standard for establishing causal effects,…

One can argue that one of the main roles of the subject of statistics is to characterize what the evidence in collected data says about questions of scientific interest. There are two broad questions that we will refer to as the estimation…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-06-11 Michael Evans

Probabilities of causation are fundamental to individual-level explanation and decision making, yet they are inherently counterfactual and not point-identifiable from data in general. Existing bounds either disregard available covariates,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Yuxuan Xie , Ang Li

We address causal reasoning in multivariate time series data generated by stochastic processes. Existing approaches are largely restricted to static settings, ignoring the continuity and emission of variations across time. In contrast, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-29 Mehdi Fatemi , Sindhu Gowda

Causal mediation analysis is complicated with multiple effect definitions that require different sets of assumptions for identification. This paper provides a systematic explanation of such assumptions. We define five potential outcome…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-26 Trang Quynh Nguyen , Ian Schmid , Elizabeth L. Ogburn , Elizabeth A. Stuart

Different attribution scores have been proposed to quantify the relevance of database tuples for query answering in databases; e.g. Causal Responsibility, the Shapley Value, the Banzhaf Power-Index, and the Causal Effect. They have been…

Databases · Computer Science 2026-04-07 Felipe Azua , Leopoldo Bertossi

The use of a hypothetical generative model was been suggested for causal analysis of observational data. The very assumption of a particular model is a commitment to a certain set of variables and therefore to a certain set of possible…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-06-09 Nimrod Megiddo

Meta-analysis, by synthesizing effect estimates from multiple studies conducted in diverse settings, stands at the top of the evidence hierarchy in clinical research. Yet, conventional approaches based on fixed- or random-effects models…

Identifying the effects of causes and causes of effects is vital in virtually every scientific field. Often, however, the needed probabilities may not be fully identifiable from the data sources available. This paper shows how partial…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-01-31 Ang Li , Scott Mueller , Judea Pearl

We propose a new definition of actual causes, using structural equations to model counterfactuals.We show that the definitions yield a plausible and elegant account ofcausation that handles well examples which have caused problems forother…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-14 Joseph Y. Halpern , Judea Pearl

In a causal world the direction of the time arrow dictates how past causal events in a variable $X$ produce future effects in $Y$. $X$ is said to cause an effect in $Y$, if the predictability (uncertainty) about the future states of $Y$…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2018-07-24 Ezequiel Bianco-Martinez , Murilo S. Baptista

Much of scientific data is collected as randomized experiments intervening on some and observing other variables of interest. Quite often, a given phenomenon is investigated in several studies, and different sets of variables are involved…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-10-19 Antti Hyttinen , Frederick Eberhardt , Patrik O. Hoyer
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