Related papers: Guessing the output of a stationary binary time se…

A novel method for sequential outlier detection in non-stationary time series is proposed. The method tests the null hypothesis of ``no outlier'' at each time point, addressing the multiple testing problem by bounding the error probability…

Let $(X_i)_{i=1,...,n}$ be a possibly nonstationary sequence such that $\mathscr{L}(X_i)=P_n$ if $i\leq n\theta$ and $\mathscr{L}(X_i)=Q_n$ if $i>n\theta$, where $0<\theta <1$ is the location of the change-point to be estimated. We…

The (Non-Preemptive) Throughput Maximization problem is a natural and fundamental scheduling problem. We are given $n$ jobs, where each job $j$ is characterized by a processing time and a time window, contained in a global interval $[0,T)$,…

In Bayesian probabilistic programming, a central problem is to estimate the normalised posterior distribution (NPD) of a probabilistic program with conditioning via score (a.k.a. observe) statements. Most previous approaches address this…

We study the stabilization of an unpredictable linear control system where the controller must act based on a rate-limited observation of the state. More precisely, we consider the system $X_{n+1} = A_n X_n + W_n - U_n$, where the $A_n$'s…

Motivated by the problem of predicting sleep states, we develop a mixed effects model for binary time series with a stochastic component represented by a Gaussian process. The fixed component captures the effects of covariates on the…

For discrete-valued time series, predictive inference cannot be implemented through the construction of prediction intervals to some predetermined coverage level, as this is the case for real-valued time series. To address this problem, we…

The rate of entropy production provides a useful quantitative measure of a non-equilibrium system and estimating it directly from time-series data from experiments is highly desirable. Several approaches have been considered for stationary…

This paper studies one-sided hypothesis testing under random sampling without replacement. That is, when $n+1$ binary random variables $X_1,\ldots, X_{n+1}$ are subject to a permutation invariant distribution and $n$ binary random variables…

One fundamental problem in studying dynamical process is whether it is possible and how to construct prediction model for an unknown system via sampled time series, especially in the modern big data era. The research in this area is…

Time series prediction is often complicated by distribution shift which demands adaptive models to accommodate time-varying distributions. We frame time series prediction under distribution shift as a weighted empirical risk minimisation…

Forecasting the evolution of complex systems is one of the grand challenges of modern data science. The fundamental difficulty lies in understanding the structure of the observed stochastic process. In this paper, we show that every…

Various optimality properties of universal sequence predictors based on Bayes-mixtures in general, and Solomonoff's prediction scheme in particular, will be studied. The probability of observing $x_t$ at time $t$, given past observations…

In a variety of problems in pure and applied probability, it is of relevant to study the large exceedance probabilities of the perpetuity sequence $Y_n := B_1 + A_1 B_2 + \cdots + (A_1 \cdots A_{n-1}) B_n$, where $(A_i,B_i) \subset…

The problem of optimal stopping with finite horizon in discrete time is considered in view of maximizing the expected gain. The algorithm proposed in this paper is completely nonparametric in the sense that it uses observed data from the…

We show how binary classification methods developed to work on i.i.d. data can be used for solving statistical problems that are seemingly unrelated to classification and concern highly-dependent time series. Specifically, the problems of…

Predicting the winner of an election is of importance to multiple stakeholders. To formulate the problem, we consider an independent sequence of categorical data with a finite number of possible outcomes in each. The data is assumed to be…

Probabilistic time series forecasting predicts the conditional probability distributions of the time series at a future time given past realizations. Such techniques are critical in risk-based decision-making and planning under…

We revisit the classical problem of universal prediction of stochastic sequences with a finite time horizon $T$ known to the learner. The question we investigate is whether it is possible to derive vanishing regret bounds that hold with…

Given a sequence $X=(X_1,X_2,\ldots)$ of random observations, a Bayesian forecaster aims to predict $X_{n+1}$ based on $(X_1,\ldots,X_n)$ for each $n\ge 0$. To this end, in principle, she only needs to select a collection…