Related papers: Probabilistic coherence and proper scoring rules

Some mathematical theorems represent ideas that are discovered again and again in different forms. One such theorem is Hall's marriage theorem. This theorem is equivalent to several other theorems in combinatorics and optimization theory,…

In this paper we formulate the problem of inference under incomplete information in very general terms. This includes modelling the process responsible for the incompleteness, which we call the incompleteness process. We allow the process…

Choice functions constitute a simple, direct and very general mathematical framework for modelling choice under uncertainty. In particular, they are able to represent the set-valued choices that appear in imprecise-probabilistic decision…

The general aim of this paper is to supply a method to decide whether a discrete system decoheres or not, and under what conditions decoherence occurs, with no need of appealing to computer simulations to obtain the time evolution of the…

We study the problem of sequentially predicting properties of a probabilistic model and its next outcome over an infinite horizon, with the goal of ensuring that the predictions incur only finitely many errors with probability 1. We…

Although much has been said about parallelism in discourse, a formal, computational theory of parallelism structure is still outstanding. In this paper, we present a theory which given two parallel utterances predicts which are the parallel…

We introduce a novel rule-based approach for handling regression problems. The new methodology carries elements from two frameworks: (i) it provides information about the uncertainty of the parameters of interest using Bayesian inference,…

This paper is about equality of proofs in which a binary predicate formalizing properties of equality occurs, besides conjunction and the constant true proposition. The properties of equality in question are those of a preordering relation,…

In this paper a new mathematical procedure is presented for combining different pieces of evidence which are represented in the interval form to reflect our knowledge about the truth of a hypothesis. Evidences may be correlated to each…

In combinatorics, the probabilistic method is a very powerful tool to prove the existence of combinatorial objects with interesting and useful properties. Explicit constructions of objects with such properties are often very difficult, or…

In this paper, we focus on the problem of conformal prediction with conditional guarantees. Prior work has shown that it is impossible to construct nontrivial prediction sets with full conditional coverage guarantees. A wealth of research…

We provide an extension of concurrent Kleene algebras to account for probabilistic properties. The algebra yields a unified framework containing nondeterminism, concurrency and probability and is sound with respect to the set of…

We generalize the optimal coupling theorem to multiple random variables: Given a collection of random variables, it is possible to couple all of them so that any two differ with probability comparable to the total-variation distance between…

We study the problem of designing multiwinner voting rules that are candidate monotone and proportional. We show that the set of committees satisfying the proportionality axiom of proportionality for solid coalitions is candidate monotone.…

A theory of quantitative inference about the parameters of sampling distributions is constructed deductively by following very general rules, referred to as the Cox-Polya-Jaynes Desiderata. The inferences are made in terms of probability…

Programs that combine I/O and countable probabilistic choice, modulo either bisimilarity or trace equivalence, can be seen as describing a probabilistic strategy. For well-founded programs, we might expect to axiomatize bisimilarity via a…

This paper relates both to the metaphysics of probability and to the physics of time asymmetry. Using the formalism of decoherent histories, it investigates whether intuitions about intrinsic time directedness that are often associated with…

When data are right-censored, i.e. some outcomes are missing due to a limited period of observation, survival analysis can compute the "time to event". Multiple classes of outcomes lead to a classification variant: predicting the most…

In the past decades, most work in the area of data analysis and machine learning was focused on optimizing predictive models and getting better results than what was possible with existing models. To what extent the metrics with which such…

The non-scientific event of a soccer match is analysed on a strictly scientific level. The analysis is based on the recently introduced concept of a team fitness (Eur. Phys. J. B 67, 445, 2009) and requires the use of finite-size scaling. A…