Related papers: Mixing Kohonen Algorithm, Markov Switching Model a…
Graphical models with change-points are computationally challenging to fit, particularly in cases where the number of observation points and the number of nodes in the graph are large. Focusing on Gaussian graphical models, we introduce an…
The paper proposes a class of financial market models which are based on inhomogeneous telegraph processes and jump diffusions with alternating volatilities. It is assumed that the jumps occur when the tendencies and volatilities are…
This paper proposes a moving sum methodology for detecting multiple change points in high-dimensional time series under a factor model, where changes are attributed to those in loadings as well as emergence or disappearance of factors. We…
A methodology is developed to identify, as units of study, each decrease in the value of a stock from a given maximum price level. A critical level in the amount of price declines is found to separate a segment operating under a random walk…
The problem of sampling from the stationary distribution of a Markov chain finds widespread applications in a variety of fields. The time required for a Markov chain to converge to its stationary distribution is known as the classical…
We show how Markov mixed membership models (MMMM) can be used to predict the degradation of assets. We model the degradation path of individual assets, to predict overall failure rates. Instead of a separate distribution for each hidden…
Change-point detection methods are proposed for the case of temporary failures, or transient changes, when an unexpected disorder is ultimately followed by a readjustment and return to the initial state. A base distribution of the…
The aim of this paper is to identify the determinants of international stock markets integration. Intuitively we selected a great number of factors linked to financial integration. Then, we developed an international asset-pricing model…
Regime detection is vital for the effective operation of trading and investment strategies. However, the most popular means of doing this, the two-state Markov-switching regression model (MSR), is not an optimal solution, as two volatility…
In this work we introduce a semi-parametric Bayesian change-point model, defining its time dynamic as a latent Markov process based on the Dirichlet process. We treat the number of change point as a random variable and we estimate it during…
Dynamic networks exhibit temporal patterns that vary across different time scales, all of which can potentially affect processes that take place on the network. However, most data-driven approaches used to model time-varying networks…
In 1665, Huygens observed that two pendulum clocks hanging from the same board became synchronized in antiphase after hundreds of swings. On the other hand, modern experiments with metronomes placed on a movable platform show that they…
Assessing world-wide financial integration constitutes a recurrent challenge in macroeconometrics, often addressed by visual inspections searching for data patterns. Econophysics literature enables us to build complementary, data-driven…
In this paper we propose a bivariate generalization of a weighted indexed semi-Markov chains to study the high frequency price dynamics of traded stocks. We assume that financial returns are described by a weighted indexed semi-Markov chain…
This study considers the multivariate segmentation procedure under the assumption of the multivariate Gaussian mixture. Jensen-Shannon divergence between two multivariate Gaussian distributions is employed as a discriminator and a recursive…
In this paper we present elementary computations for some Markov modulated counting processes, also called counting processes with regime switching. Regime switching has become an increasingly popular concept in many branches of science. In…
We consider the problem of breakpoint detection in a regression modeling framework. To that end, we introduce a novel method, the max-EM algorithm which combines a constrained Hidden Markov Model with the Classification-EM (CEM) algorithm.…
In the regime switching extension of Black-Scholes-Merton model of asset price dynamics, one assumes that the volatility coefficient evolves as a hidden pure jump process. Under the assumption of Markov regime switching, we have considered…
The paper deals with a mathematical model of a surveillance system based on a net of sensors. The signals acquired by each node of the net are Markovian process, have two different transition probabilities, which depends on the presence or…
This work focuses on time-inhomogeneous Markov chains with two time scales. Our motivations stem from applications in reliability and dependability, queueing networks, financial engineering and manufacturing systems, where two-time-scale…