Related papers: Prediction with expert advice for the Brier game
We consider the task of determining the number of chances a soccer team creates, along with the composite nature of each chance-the players involved and the locations on the pitch of the assist and the chance. We propose an interpretable…
A checkers-like model game with a simplified set of rules is studied through extensive simulations of agents with different expertise and strategies. The introduction of complementary strategies, in a quite general way, provides a tool to…
Football (soccer) is a sport that is characterised by complex game play, where players perform a variety of actions, such as passes, shots, tackles, fouls, in order to score goals, and ultimately win matches. Accurately forecasting the…
In this paper I present several algorithmic techniques for improving the decision process of multiple types of agents behaving in environments where their interests are in conflict. The interactions between the agents are modelled by using…
In decision-dependent games, multiple players optimize their decisions under a data distribution that shifts with their joint actions, creating complex dynamics in applications like market pricing. A practical consequence of these dynamics…
Probability forecasts are intended to account for the uncertainties inherent in forecasting. It is suggested that from an end-user's point of view probability is not necessarily sufficient to reflect uncertainties that are not simply the…
Sporting events are extremely complex and require a multitude of metrics to accurate describe the event. When making multiple predictions, one should make them from a single source to keep consistency across the predictions. We present a…
The continuous and discrete models of labour force training are being built. The application of the results from the theory of differential games and dynamic programming allows presenting the optimal strategies of labour force training that…
This paper explores improvements in prediction accuracy and inference capability when allowing for potential correlation in team-level random effects across multiple game-level responses from different assumed distributions. First-order and…
Game theory is usually considered applied mathematics, but a few game-theoretic results, such as Borel determinacy, were developed by mathematicians for mathematics in a broad sense. These results usually state determinacy, i.e. the…
The expected goal provides a more representative measure of the team and player performance which also suit the low-scoring nature of football instead of score in modern football. The score of a match involves randomness and often may not…
In this work, we extended a stochastic model for football leagues based on the team's potential [R. da Silva et al. Comput. Phys. Commun. \textbf{184} 661--670 (2013)] for making predictions instead of only performing a successful…
We study data-driven assistants that provide congestion forecasts to users of shared facilities (roads, cafeterias, etc.), to support coordination between them, and increase efficiency of such collective systems. Key questions are: (1) when…
The increasing use of machine learning in high-stakes domains -- where people's livelihoods are impacted -- creates an urgent need for interpretable, fair, and highly accurate algorithms. With these needs in mind, we propose a mixed integer…
Predicting outcomes in sports is important for teams, leagues, bettors, media, and fans. Given the growing amount of player tracking data, sports analytics models are increasingly utilizing spatially-derived features built upon player…
In recent years sports analytics has gotten more and more popular. We propose a model for Rugby data - in particular to model the 2014 Six Nations tournament. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the characteristics that…
Machine teaching often involves the creation of an optimal (typically minimal) dataset to help a model (referred to as the `student') achieve specific goals given by a teacher. While abundant in the continuous domain, the studies on the…
From the viewpoint of networks, a ranking system for players or teams in sports is equivalent to a centrality measure for sports networks, whereby a directed link represents the result of a single game. Previously proposed network-based…
The paper presents a hierarchical Bayesian model for simultaneous inference of tournament graphs and informant error. From multiple informant reports or measurement instrument outputs, the model estimates the structure of a criterion (i.e.,…
We propose definitions of substitutes and complements for pieces of information ("signals") in the context of a decision or optimization problem, with game-theoretic and algorithmic applications. In a game-theoretic context, substitutes…